Arab towns in Israel celebrate historic Knesset gains with fireworks
Fireworks erupted in Lod, Kafr Manda and Tayibe after exit polls projected a combined 18 seats for Arab parties.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 29 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Oct, 20:31 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 19:00 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Oct, 17:26 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 16:57 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 15:45 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 12:59 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 13% |
| 29 Oct, 11:56 UTC | 13% |
| 29 Oct, 11:20 UTC | 20% |
| 29 Oct, 10:58 UTC | 20% |
| 29 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 18% |
| 29 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 21% |
| 29 Oct, 08:50 UTC | 23% |
| 29 Oct, 08:26 UTC | 28% |
| 29 Oct, 07:58 UTC | 26% |
| 29 Oct, 07:26 UTC | 17% |
| 29 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 20% |
| 29 Oct, 06:11 UTC | 19% |
| 29 Oct, 05:51 UTC | 27% |
| 29 Oct, 05:29 UTC | 26% |
| 29 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 27% |
| 29 Oct, 04:28 UTC | 30% |
| 29 Oct, 03:35 UTC | 40% |
| 29 Oct, 03:21 UTC | 40% |
| 29 Oct, 02:53 UTC | 41% |
| 29 Oct, 02:27 UTC | 41% |
| 29 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 41% |
| 29 Oct, 01:02 UTC | 45% |
| 29 Oct, 00:55 UTC | 45% |
| 29 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 42% |
| 28 Oct, 23:54 UTC | 42% |
| 28 Oct, 23:26 UTC | 41% |
| 28 Oct, 22:46 UTC | 37% |
| 28 Oct, 22:25 UTC | 31% |
| 28 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 34% |
| 28 Oct, 21:22 UTC | 46% |
| 28 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 46% |
| 28 Oct, 20:09 UTC | 47% |
| 28 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 47% |
| 28 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 43% |
| 28 Oct, 18:59 UTC | 44% |
| 28 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 42% |
| 28 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 55% |
| 28 Oct, 17:23 UTC | 64% |
| 28 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 57% |
| 28 Oct, 16:24 UTC | 40% |
| 28 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 38% |
| 28 Oct, 15:26 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Oct, 14:56 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 14:14 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 13:57 UTC | 15% |
| 28 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 18% |
| 28 Oct, 12:57 UTC | 19% |
| 28 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 20% |
| 28 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 31% |
| 28 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 39% |
| 28 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 44% |
| 28 Oct, 10:23 UTC | 64% |
| 28 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 62% |
| 28 Oct, 09:10 UTC | 62% |
| 28 Oct, 08:43 UTC | 62% |
| 28 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 62% |
| 28 Oct, 07:56 UTC | 58% |
| 28 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 51% |
| 28 Oct, 06:43 UTC | 61% |
| 28 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 68% |
| 28 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 75% |
| 28 Oct, 05:19 UTC | 66% |
| 28 Oct, 04:49 UTC | 67% |
| 28 Oct, 04:17 UTC | 65% |
| 28 Oct, 03:56 UTC | 58% |
| 28 Oct, 03:29 UTC | 54% |
| 28 Oct, 02:58 UTC | 44% |
| 28 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 42% |
| 28 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 41% |
| 28 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 41% |
| 28 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 42% |
| 28 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 20% |
| 27 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 10% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 27 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 27 October at 22:56 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? — the market puts it at 1%, with $31k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 30 Nov 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if The Joint List wins 12 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli Knesset election, including any seats won as part of a joint list or merged party. The No outcome applies if they win fewer than 12 seats.
- Israel First — the market puts it at 2%, closing 27 Oct 2027. The outcome is Yes if Israel First wins at least one seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Arab town celebrations for the actual election result.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? 1% −39
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Israel First 2%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Lod
- Kafr Manda
- Tayibe
- Knesset