Senate control hinges on unwanted nominees in key races
Majority and minority leaders face midterm challenges with nominees they did not support, including Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Kalshi Republican Party 20% −3Adam Hamilton
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Coverage vs. odds, last two weeks
How much the press wrote about Adam Hamilton each day, and what its busiest market did over the same days.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 33% |
| 23 Oct, 10:03 UTC | 33% |
| 23 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 32% |
| 23 Oct, 09:00 UTC | 33% |
| 23 Oct, 08:46 UTC | 32% |
| 23 Oct, 07:40 UTC | 33% |
| 23 Oct, 07:26 UTC | 32% |
| 23 Oct, 04:17 UTC | 33% |
| 23 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 33% |
| 22 Oct, 23:20 UTC | 32% |
| 22 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 32% |
| 22 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 32% |
| 22 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 32% |
| 22 Oct, 15:01 UTC | 33% |
| 22 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 33% |
| 22 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 34% |
| 22 Oct, 12:21 UTC | 34% |
| 22 Oct, 11:53 UTC | 33% |
| 22 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 34% |
| 22 Oct, 09:47 UTC | 34% |
| 21 Oct, 21:04 UTC | 34% |
| 21 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 33% |
| 21 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 34% |
| 21 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 35% |
| 21 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 34% |
| 21 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 35% |
| 21 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 35% |
| 21 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 35% |
| 21 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 35% |
| 21 Oct, 15:38 UTC | 35% |
| 21 Oct, 13:12 UTC | 35% |
| 21 Oct, 06:44 UTC | 36% |
| 21 Oct, 06:23 UTC | 36% |
| 21 Oct, 05:27 UTC | 36% |
| 21 Oct, 04:59 UTC | 35% |
| 20 Oct, 23:07 UTC | 36% |
| 20 Oct, 22:59 UTC | 35% |
| 20 Oct, 20:38 UTC | 36% |
| 20 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 35% |
| 20 Oct, 16:41 UTC | 36% |
| 20 Oct, 16:20 UTC | 36% |
| 20 Oct, 12:16 UTC | 37% |
| 20 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 38% |
| 20 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 38% |
| 19 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 38% |
| 19 Oct, 03:09 UTC | 39% |
| 19 Oct, 02:49 UTC | 38% |
| 19 Oct, 02:01 UTC | 39% |
| 19 Oct, 01:33 UTC | 38% |
| 19 Oct, 01:05 UTC | 39% |
| 19 Oct, 00:58 UTC | 37% |
| 18 Oct, 23:50 UTC | 38% |
| 18 Oct, 23:29 UTC | 37% |
| 18 Oct, 22:07 UTC | 38% |
| 18 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 39% |
| 18 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 38% |
| 18 Oct, 18:43 UTC | 39% |
| 18 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 39% |
| 18 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 39% |
| 18 Oct, 15:08 UTC | 39% |
| 18 Oct, 14:01 UTC | 39% |
| 18 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 38% |
| 18 Oct, 05:11 UTC | 39% |
| 18 Oct, 04:50 UTC | 39% |
| 18 Oct, 04:11 UTC | 38% |
| 18 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 38% |
| 18 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 38% |
| 18 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 39% |
| 17 Oct, 23:58 UTC | 38% |
| 17 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 38% |
| 17 Oct, 21:52 UTC | 39% |
| 17 Oct, 21:18 UTC | 38% |
| 17 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 38% |
| 17 Oct, 19:11 UTC | 38% |
| 17 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 37% |
| 17 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 38% |
| 17 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 37% |
| 17 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 38% |
| 17 Oct, 10:19 UTC | 38% |
| 17 Oct, 09:13 UTC | 38% |
| 17 Oct, 07:27 UTC | 38% |
| 17 Oct, 06:54 UTC | 37% |
| 17 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 38% |
| 17 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 37% |
| 17 Oct, 00:51 UTC | 38% |
| 16 Oct, 22:09 UTC | 38% |
| 16 Oct, 18:09 UTC | 38% |
| 16 Oct, 16:46 UTC | 39% |
| 16 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 38% |
| 16 Oct, 13:17 UTC | 38% |
Stories
Trump Campaigns in Iowa, Kansas and North Carolina Ahead of Midterms
President Trump rallies in key states to support GOP candidates as Republicans face difficult midterm elections.
Senate Races Tighten in Kansas, Minnesota and South Carolina as Democrats Face Upset Threats Hot: $369k traded on its market in 24 hours
Polling shows tight contests in key states including Kansas, Minnesota and South Carolina, prompting Republican panic over potential Senate losses.
Kalshi Republican Party 33% −1