US Pushes Venezuela Talks as Trump Delays Elections

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 23 Oct 2026. The New York Times published first, on 23 October at 17:15 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Venezuela — the market puts it at 8%, with $9 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump physically travels to and is present in Venezuela between now and January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake this for a policy announcement or diplomatic visit rather than requiring his actual physical presence within the country's borders.
• Venezuela — the market puts it at 2%, with $515 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 20 Jan 2029. The outcome is Yes if any part of Venezuela becomes the 51st U.S. state before January 20, 2029. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about oil deals for a relevant event, but only statehood matters.
• Marco Rubio — the market puts it at 1%, closing 27 Jan 2029. The outcome is Yes if Marco Rubio formally becomes White House Press Secretary before January 20, 2029, and he is the first person to hold that role after the market opens. The outcome is No if he does not take the position by that date or if someone else holds it first. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Venezuela talks as relevant to the resolution criteria.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.