US Lifts Sanctions on Venezuela’s Top Lawmaker as Relations Thaw
The move signals warming ties between Washington and Caracas following the capture of Nicolás Maduro earlier this year.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 67% |
| 15 Oct, 00:02 UTC | 67% |
| 14 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 67% |
| 14 Oct, 22:03 UTC | 68% |
| 14 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 68% |
| 14 Oct, 20:45 UTC | 68% |
| 14 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 70% |
| 14 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 71% |
| 14 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 71% |
| 14 Oct, 09:51 UTC | 71% |
| 13 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 72% |
| 13 Oct, 04:48 UTC | 72% |
| 12 Oct, 20:35 UTC | 72% |
| 12 Oct, 15:07 UTC | 72% |
| 12 Oct, 14:04 UTC | 72% |
| 12 Oct, 12:49 UTC | 72% |
| 12 Oct, 12:11 UTC | 72% |
| 12 Oct, 11:58 UTC | 72% |
| 12 Oct, 10:22 UTC | 72% |
| 12 Oct, 09:07 UTC | 72% |
| 12 Oct, 06:32 UTC | 72% |
| 12 Oct, 06:08 UTC | 72% |
| 12 Oct, 03:37 UTC | 72% |
| 12 Oct, 00:47 UTC | 72% |
| 12 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 72% |
| 11 Oct, 23:37 UTC | 72% |
| 11 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 72% |
| 11 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 72% |
| 11 Oct, 22:08 UTC | 72% |
| 11 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 72% |
| 11 Oct, 20:09 UTC | 72% |
| 11 Oct, 15:40 UTC | 72% |
| 11 Oct, 08:37 UTC | 72% |
| 11 Oct, 07:02 UTC | 71% |
| 10 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 72% |
| 10 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 72% |
| 10 Oct, 13:36 UTC | 72% |
| 10 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 72% |
| 10 Oct, 06:51 UTC | 72% |
| 10 Oct, 04:40 UTC | 72% |
| 10 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 72% |
| 10 Oct, 03:20 UTC | 72% |
| 10 Oct, 02:39 UTC | 72% |
| 9 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 71% |
| 9 Oct, 18:49 UTC | 72% |
| 9 Oct, 16:37 UTC | 72% |
| 9 Oct, 13:20 UTC | 72% |
| 9 Oct, 12:31 UTC | 72% |
| 9 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 72% |
| 9 Oct, 11:15 UTC | 72% |
| 9 Oct, 07:36 UTC | 71% |
| 8 Oct, 19:39 UTC | 71% |
| 8 Oct, 17:42 UTC | 71% |
| 8 Oct, 16:46 UTC | 71% |
| 8 Oct, 15:36 UTC | 71% |
| 8 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 71% |
| 8 Oct, 13:59 UTC | 71% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 14 Oct 2026. Bloomberg Markets published first, on 14 October at 14:20 UTC; Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera followed 5h 32m later. The most recent article, from Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera, appeared on 14 October at 19:53 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet).
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? — the market puts it at 67%, with $29k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves based on who officially holds the position of head of state in Venezuela at 12 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Readers often mistake a person’s appointment date or media reports for the actual moment they assume power, but only confirmed, sworn-in leaders count. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly identify its head of state, the United Nations list serves as the final authority.
- Nicolás Maduro — the market puts it at 78%, with $7k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Nicolás Maduro officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the resolution deadline.
- Nicolás Maduro — the market puts it at 6%, closing 2 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Nicolás Maduro is the de facto head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026. It resolves to No if he does not hold that position by that date. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the resolution deadline.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Polymarket Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? 67% −5
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Nicolás Maduro 78% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Nicolás Maduro 6%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- United States
- Venezuela
- Nicolás Maduro