NewsMarkets

Markets

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Implied probability 78%+3
24-hour volume$74k
Total volume$3.8M
Liquidity$75k
Resolves1 Jan 2027

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

Does the market have this right?

Email me when the odds move

We email a link to confirm first. At most one alert email every six hours; unsubscribe in one click. Privacy

What counts

The market resolves based on who officially holds the position of head of state in Venezuela at 12 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Readers often mistake a person’s appointment date or media reports for the actual moment they assume power, but only confirmed, sworn-in leaders count. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly identify its head of state, the United Nations list serves as the final authority.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 78%
  • No 22%

Trade this market on Polymarket →

Embed this market

Paste this into any web page to show the live odds, with a link back here.