US Households Face Surge in Electricity Shutoffs Amid Record Heat

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 29 Sept 2026. The Guardian Business published first, on 29 September at 13:00 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? — the market puts it at 0%, with $238 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 2 Mar 2027. The market resolves based on whether 2026 ranks as the fifth-hottest year in NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data. The ranking uses the "No_Smoothing" column for 2026, with ties broken by the rank of the tied year. If NASA data is unavailable by March 1, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves based on credible reporting consensus.
• Hottest — the market puts it at 67%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if NASA's unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2026 exceeds both the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius. The outcome is No if that index fails to meet either of those thresholds. Readers often mistake the deadline or source, but only the specific unsmoothed GISS data determines the result.
• Hottest — the market puts it at 69%, with $1 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2026 exceeds both the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, as reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake this for a comparison with historical averages or other temperature datasets, but only the specific GISS index values matter.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.