US democracy hits 50-year low as global rule of law declines
A new report finds US democratic indicators at their lowest in half a century, undermining the global rule of law.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 1 more published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Sept, 04:59 UTC | 2% |
| 17 Sept, 09:02 UTC | 2% |
| 17 Sept, 08:05 UTC | 2% |
| 17 Sept, 07:47 UTC | 2% |
| 16 Sept, 19:39 UTC | 2% |
| 16 Sept, 06:03 UTC | 2% |
| 15 Sept, 06:03 UTC | 2% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%? respond.
The story so far
4 publishers have covered this in 4 articles since 14 Sept 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 14 September at 23:01 UTC; Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera followed 16h 51m later. The most recent article, from France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines, appeared on 16 September at 13:01 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Guardian US (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), NPR World (major outlet), France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%? — the market puts it at 2%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2026.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- The Guardian USDemocracy indicators in US at lowest levels for 50 years, data shows—
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraUS democratic decline threatens global rule of law, report warns2%
- NPR WorldState of U.S. democracy reaches new low, report finds2%
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesHow is Democracy Doing?2%
- Current odds2%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- State of U.S. democracy reaches new low, report finds NPR World ·
- US democratic decline threatens global rule of law, report warns Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Democracy indicators in US at lowest levels for 50 years, data shows The Guardian US ·
- How is Democracy Doing? France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
Related prediction markets
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- Polymarket Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%? 2%
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In this story
- International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance
- Trump administration