Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 20 Sept, 21:46 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Sept, 21:07 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Sept, 15:17 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Sept, 12:26 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Sept, 08:07 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 12:01 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 08:40 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Sept, 04:59 UTC | 2% |
| 17 Sept, 09:02 UTC | 2% |
| 17 Sept, 08:05 UTC | 2% |
| 17 Sept, 07:47 UTC | 2% |
| 16 Sept, 19:39 UTC | 2% |
| 16 Sept, 06:03 UTC | 2% |
| 15 Sept, 06:03 UTC | 2% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party’s share of valid votes for U.S. House candidates exceeds the Republican Party’s share by at least 0% but no more than 2%. The final vote totals come from the US Clerk of the House, and only votes for voting members in the 50 states count toward this calculation. Readers often mistake the deadline or ignore that Delegate and Resident Commissioner votes are excluded.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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