US And Russia-China Race To Place Nuclear Reactors On The Moon
The US aims for a lunar reactor by 2030 while a Russian-Chinese alliance targets 2036, raising safety concerns among scientists.
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
All 1 source published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 52% |
| 6 Oct, 05:15 UTC | 52% |
| 5 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 59% |
| 5 Oct, 19:06 UTC | 57% |
| 4 Oct, 18:42 UTC | 57% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 4 Oct 2026. The New York Times published first, on 4 October at 09:00 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- United States — the market puts it at 52%, with $9 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2031. The outcome is Yes if the United States launches the first manned lunar mission before January 1, 2031. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the launch date for the resolution deadline or assume any crewed flight counts regardless of which country leads.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi United States 52% −5
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls