United CEO Doubts Boom Supersonic Airliner Will Launch by 2029
The chief executive of United Airlines questions whether the company's partner can deliver its supersonic jet in time for the targeted debut.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 87% |
| 1 Nov, 11:19 UTC | 87% |
| 31 Oct, 19:39 UTC | 86% |
| 31 Oct, 10:06 UTC | 88% |
| 27 Oct, 19:11 UTC | 91% |
| 27 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 90% |
| 25 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 81% |
| 25 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 80% |
| 24 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 86% |
| 24 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 82% |
| 23 Oct, 14:51 UTC | 84% |
| 23 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 83% |
| 22 Oct, 04:12 UTC | 85% |
| 21 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 83% |
| 21 Oct, 15:25 UTC | 86% |
| 21 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 83% |
| 20 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 82% |
| 19 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 75% |
| 18 Oct, 17:03 UTC | 74% |
| 14 Oct, 02:01 UTC | 75% |
| 13 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 74% |
| 7 Oct, 11:34 UTC | 75% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 74% |
| 5 Oct, 03:39 UTC | 75% |
| 5 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 74% |
| 4 Oct, 04:51 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 74% |
| 30 Sept, 18:51 UTC | 75% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 30 Oct 2026. Ars Technica published first, on 30 October at 21:41 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Above 186 million — the market puts it at 87%, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Mar 2028. The market resolves to Yes if United Airlines reports more than 186 million passengers flown in 2026. It resolves to No if the number is 186 million or fewer. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking it depends on a specific date rather than the full year's total.
- United Airlines — the market puts it at 16%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if United Airlines moves its headquarters to Denver or announces that move before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked story about status matches for a relocation announcement.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Above 186 million 87% +1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi United Airlines 16%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- United Airlines
- Boom