Above 186 million
Implied probability 75%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$10k
Liquidity$10k
Resolves31 Mar 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 75% |
| 30 Sept, 18:51 UTC | 75% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if United Airlines reports more than 186 million passengers flown in 2026. It resolves to No if the number is 186 million or fewer. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking it depends on a specific date rather than the full year's total.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 75%
- No 25%