Ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties could hold balance of power in Israel election

Arab-led and ultra-Orthodox factions may determine the outcome of Israel's upcoming vote on October 27.

1 publisher · 1 article · first seen 19 Oct 2026 · updated 2d ago

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The odds

How the odds moved · Will Israel election happen as scheduled?

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data

Time	Chance of yes
now	94%
21 Oct, 06:09 UTC	94%
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The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 19 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 19 October at 05:58 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

Will Israel election happen as scheduled? — the market puts it at 94%, with $8k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 28 Oct 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if nationwide general voting for Israel's 26th Knesset takes place on October 27, 2026. It resolves to "No" if that nationwide voting happens before that date or does not occur by the end of October 27, 2026. Readers often mistakenly believe that early or special voting (like for soldiers or citizens abroad) determines the outcome, but only the date of general election-day voting counts.
Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority? — the market puts it at 15%, with $213 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 28 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if either the Democratic bloc or the Likud-led bloc secures at least 61 seats in the Israeli Knesset after the October 27, 2026 election. It resolves to No if neither group reaches that threshold or if the results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election date rather than the final resolution cutoff in June 2027.
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats? — the market puts it at 50%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 28 Oct 2026. The Bibi outcome wins if Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas secure more Knesset seats than The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu. The Opp. outcome wins if the latter group of parties secures more seats than the former.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

The kingmakers who could determine Israel’s election Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 2d ago

Markets on this story

Polymarket Will Israel election happen as scheduled? 94% $8k 24hends 28 Oct 2026
Does the market have this right?

Wrong market?

What's wrong
Polymarket Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority? 15% +1 $213 24hends 28 Oct 2026
Does the market have this right?

Wrong market?

What's wrong
Polymarket Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats? 50% +3 $3k 24hends 28 Oct 2026
Does the market have this right?

Wrong market?

What's wrong

Have your say

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