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U.S. to Send Dozens of Afghan Immigrants Back to Afghanistan

The administration plans to fly immigrants from Louisiana to Pakistan for expulsion over the border.

2 publishers · 2 articles · first seen 30 Oct 2026 · updated 2h ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

The odds

How the odds moved · Afghanistan
0%50%100%1%29 Oct, 15:57 UTCnowThe New York Times: U.S. to Send Dozens Back to Afghanistan, Despite Risk of Persecution · 30 Oct, 16:17 UTCTimes of India: Trump administration to deport 150 Afghan refugees to Afghanistan via Pakistan · 31 Oct, 02:31 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now1%
29 Oct, 15:57 UTC1%

The story so far

2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 30 Oct 2026. The New York Times published first, on 30 October at 16:17 UTC; Times of India followed 10h 14m later. The most recent article, from Times of India, appeared on 31 October at 02:31 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The New York Times (major outlet), Times of India.

One prediction market prices this story:

  • Afghanistan — the market puts it at 1%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a level 3 or lower travel advisory for Afghanistan before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about deportations as the deciding factor, but only official State Department travel advisories count.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. U.S. to Send Dozens Back to Afghanistan, Despite Risk of Persecution The New York Times ·
  2. Trump administration to deport 150 Afghan refugees to Afghanistan via Pakistan Times of India

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Kalshi Afghanistan 1% $0 24hends 1 Jan 2027

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