Trump Threatens Legacy of New Jersey Rep Tom Kean Jr in House Race

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 31 Oct 2026. politico.com published first, on 31 October at 18:00 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• At least 50% — the market puts it at 25%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Tom Kean Jr. receives at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 New Jersey 7th Congressional District election, based on certified results. The outcome depends entirely on the official certification of the vote count, not on early returns or polls.
• Thomas Kean Jr. — the market puts it at 5%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the person sworn in as the U.S. Representative for New Jersey's 7th district at the start of the 2027 term is a Republican. It resolves to No if that representative belongs to any other party or is independent. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Trump’s threats for the actual resolution criteria, but only the official party affiliation of the sworn-in officeholder matters.
• Before 2028 — the market puts it at 7%, closing 7 Nov 2028. The outcome is Yes if any member of the Donald J. Trump family is nominated as the 2028 Republican presidential candidate before 2028. The outcome is No if this nomination does not occur within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of 2027, but the condition applies to any time before 2028.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.