Trump seeks control of western hemisphere with Brazil as key prize
The US president aims to restore American preeminence in the region while voters prioritize curbing gang violence.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 20% |
| 4 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 20% |
| 4 Oct, 03:34 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 17% |
| 3 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 18:36 UTC | 19% |
| 2 Oct, 17:11 UTC | 20% |
| 2 Oct, 15:16 UTC | 21% |
| 2 Oct, 05:18 UTC | 18% |
| 2 Oct, 01:26 UTC | 22% |
| 1 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 17% |
| 1 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 21% |
| 30 Sept, 22:37 UTC | 23% |
| 30 Sept, 21:08 UTC | 16% |
| 30 Sept, 15:00 UTC | 21% |
| 30 Sept, 00:03 UTC | 17% |
| 29 Sept, 13:35 UTC | 21% |
| 29 Sept, 10:45 UTC | 18% |
| 28 Sept, 10:23 UTC | 19% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 4 Oct 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 4 October at 11:00 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- During Trump's term — the market puts it at 20%, with $247 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 20 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if the United States government takes control of any part of the Panama Canal before January 20, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked story about tariffs for the relevant event, but only actual control of the canal counts.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi During Trump's term 20%
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