NewsMarkets

World

Trump praised El Salvador's Bukele as authoritarian model

The Guardian US argues the US president is adopting authoritarian tactics similar to those used by his ally in El Salvador.

1 publisher · 1 article · first seen 25 Oct 2026 · updated 2h ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

The odds

How the odds moved · Cuba
0%50%100%9%21 Oct, 20:20 UTCnowThe Guardian US: How to build a police state | William Wheeler · 25 Oct, 13:00 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now9%
24 Oct, 21:44 UTC9%
23 Oct, 21:34 UTC9%
22 Oct, 21:57 UTC6%
22 Oct, 17:38 UTC5%
22 Oct, 11:07 UTC5%
21 Oct, 20:20 UTC10%

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 25 Oct 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 25 October at 13:00 UTC.

One prediction market prices this story:

  • Cuba — the market puts it at 9%, with $1 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump physically enters Cuba between now and January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if he does not make such a visit within that timeframe. Readers often mistake general policy statements or diplomatic meetings for actual physical presence in the country.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. How to build a police state | William Wheeler The Guardian US ·

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Kalshi Cuba 9% $1 24hends 1 Jan 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

Have your say

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

Email me when the odds move

We email a link to confirm first. At most one alert email every six hours; unsubscribe in one click. Privacy

In this story

Embed this story

Paste this into any web page to show the live odds, with a link back here.