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Hurricane Trudy Intensifies, Forecast to Approach Mexico Coast as Major Storm Hot: Odds moved 18 points in 24 hours

The National Hurricane Center reports that Tropical Storm Trudy is rapidly intensifying and moving northwest toward the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico.

2 publishers · 36 articles · first seen 13 Oct 2026 · updated 3h ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

The odds

How the odds moved · Category 4 or above
0%50%100%78%14 Oct, 09:05 UTCnowABC News: Trudy strengthens to a hurricane as system nears Mexico’s coast with storm expected · 15 Oct, 11:32 UTCNOAA NHC Pacific: Hurricane Trudy Graphics · 15 Oct, 09:27 UTCNOAA NHC Pacific: Hurricane Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 8 · 15 Oct, 08:38 UTCNOAA NHC Pacific: Summary for Hurricane Trudy (EP1/EP212026) · 15 Oct, 08:37 UTCNOAA NHC Pacific: Hurricane Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8 · 15 Oct, 08:37 UTCNOAA NHC Pacific: Hurricane Trudy Forecast Advisory Number 8 · 15 Oct, 08:36 UTCNOAA NHC Pacific: Tropical Storm Trudy Graphics · 15 Oct, 03:28 UTCNOAA NHC Pacific: Tropical Storm Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 7 · 15 Oct, 02:35 UTCNOAA NHC Pacific: Summary for Tropical Storm Trudy (EP1/EP212026) · 15 Oct, 02:34 UTCNOAA NHC Pacific: Tropical Storm Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7 · 15 Oct, 02:34 UTCNOAA NHC Pacific: Tropical Storm Trudy Forecast Advisory Number 7 · 15 Oct, 02:34 UTCNOAA NHC Pacific: Tropical Storm Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 6 · 14 Oct, 20:47 UTCNOAA NHC Pacific: Tropical Storm Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6 · 14 Oct, 20:46 UTCNOAA NHC Pacific: Tropical Storm Trudy Public Advisory Number 6 · 14 Oct, 20:45 UTCNOAA NHC Pacific: Tropical Storm Trudy Forecast Advisory Number 6 · 14 Oct, 20:44 UTCNOAA NHC Pacific: Tropical Storm Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 5 · 14 Oct, 14:56 UTCNOAA NHC Pacific: Tropical Storm Trudy Public Advisory Number 5 · 14 Oct, 14:55 UTCNOAA NHC Pacific: Tropical Storm Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5 · 14 Oct, 14:55 UTCNOAA NHC Pacific: Tropical Storm Trudy Forecast Advisory Number 5 · 14 Oct, 14:55 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 17 more published before price tracking began

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now78%
15 Oct, 13:31 UTC78%
15 Oct, 09:37 UTC77%
14 Oct, 09:05 UTC96%

The story so far

2 publishers have covered this in 36 articles since 13 Oct 2026. NOAA NHC Pacific published first, on 13 October at 14:49 UTC; ABC News followed 44h 42m later. The most recent article, from ABC News, appeared on 15 October at 11:32 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: NOAA NHC Pacific (major outlet), ABC News (major outlet).

2 prediction markets price this story:

  • Category 4 or above — the market puts it at 78%, with $996 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 2 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Hurricane Trudy attains maximum sustained winds of at least 130 mph. It resolves to No if the storm does not reach this wind speed threshold. Readers often mistake the forecast intensity for the actual measured winds required for resolution.
  • Category 4 or higher landfall — the market puts it at 1%, with $141 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if a Category 4 or stronger hurricane makes landfall in Florida (excluding the Keys) between October 6, 2026, and December 31, 2026. The outcome depends on an official report from NOAA's National Hurricane Center confirming the event within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the start date for October 5 or assume any wind speed qualifies without a confirmed landfall.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Category 4 or above at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. NOAA NHC PacificSummary for Tropical Depression Twenty-One-e (EP1/EP212026)—
  2. NOAA NHC PacificTropical Depression Twenty-One-e Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1—
  3. NOAA NHC PacificTropical Depression Twenty-One-e Forecast Discussion Number 1—
  4. NOAA NHC PacificTropical Depression Twenty-One-e Graphics—
  5. NOAA NHC PacificSummary for Tropical Storm Trudy (EP1/EP212026)—
  6. NOAA NHC PacificTropical Storm Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2—
  7. NOAA NHC PacificTropical Storm Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 2—
  8. NOAA NHC PacificTropical Storm Trudy Graphics—
  9. NOAA NHC PacificTropical Storm Trudy Forecast Advisory Number 3—
  10. NOAA NHC PacificSummary for Tropical Storm Trudy (EP1/EP212026)—
  11. Show 26 later sources
    1. NOAA NHC PacificTropical Storm Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3—
    2. NOAA NHC PacificTropical Storm Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 3—
    3. NOAA NHC PacificTropical Storm Trudy Graphics—
    4. NOAA NHC PacificTropical Storm Trudy Forecast Advisory Number 4—
    5. NOAA NHC PacificTropical Storm Trudy Public Advisory Number 4—
    6. NOAA NHC PacificTropical Storm Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4—
    7. NOAA NHC PacificTropical Storm Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 4—
    8. NOAA NHC PacificTropical Storm Trudy Forecast Advisory Number 596%
    9. NOAA NHC PacificTropical Storm Trudy Public Advisory Number 596%
    10. NOAA NHC PacificTropical Storm Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 596%
    11. NOAA NHC PacificTropical Storm Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 596%
    12. NOAA NHC PacificTropical Storm Trudy Forecast Advisory Number 696%
    13. NOAA NHC PacificTropical Storm Trudy Public Advisory Number 696%
    14. NOAA NHC PacificTropical Storm Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 696%
    15. NOAA NHC PacificTropical Storm Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 696%
    16. NOAA NHC PacificTropical Storm Trudy Forecast Advisory Number 796%
    17. NOAA NHC PacificTropical Storm Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 796%
    18. NOAA NHC PacificSummary for Tropical Storm Trudy (EP1/EP212026)96%
    19. NOAA NHC PacificTropical Storm Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 796%
    20. NOAA NHC PacificTropical Storm Trudy Graphics96%
    21. NOAA NHC PacificHurricane Trudy Forecast Advisory Number 896%
    22. NOAA NHC PacificHurricane Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 896%
    23. NOAA NHC PacificSummary for Hurricane Trudy (EP1/EP212026)96%
    24. NOAA NHC PacificHurricane Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 896%
    25. NOAA NHC PacificHurricane Trudy Graphics96%
    26. ABC NewsTrudy strengthens to a hurricane as system nears Mexico’s coast with storm expected77%▼19 points since the previous source
  12. Current odds78%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Trudy strengthens to a hurricane as system nears Mexico’s coast with storm expected ABC News ·
  2. Hurricane Trudy Graphics NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  3. Hurricane Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 8 NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  4. Summary for Hurricane Trudy (EP1/EP212026) NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  5. Hurricane Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8 NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  6. Hurricane Trudy Forecast Advisory Number 8 NOAA NHC Pacific ·
Show 30 more sources
  1. Tropical Storm Trudy Graphics NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  2. Tropical Storm Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 7 NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  3. Summary for Tropical Storm Trudy (EP1/EP212026) NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  4. Tropical Storm Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7 NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  5. Tropical Storm Trudy Forecast Advisory Number 7 NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  6. Tropical Storm Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 6 NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  7. Tropical Storm Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6 NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  8. Tropical Storm Trudy Public Advisory Number 6 NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  9. Tropical Storm Trudy Forecast Advisory Number 6 NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  10. Tropical Storm Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 5 NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  11. Tropical Storm Trudy Public Advisory Number 5 NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  12. Tropical Storm Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5 NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  13. Tropical Storm Trudy Forecast Advisory Number 5 NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  14. Tropical Storm Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 4 NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  15. Tropical Storm Trudy Public Advisory Number 4 NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  16. Tropical Storm Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4 NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  17. Tropical Storm Trudy Forecast Advisory Number 4 NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  18. Tropical Storm Trudy Graphics NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  19. Tropical Storm Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 3 NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  20. Tropical Storm Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3 NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  21. Summary for Tropical Storm Trudy (EP1/EP212026) NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  22. Tropical Storm Trudy Forecast Advisory Number 3 NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  23. Tropical Storm Trudy Graphics NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  24. Tropical Storm Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 2 NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  25. Summary for Tropical Storm Trudy (EP1/EP212026) NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  26. Tropical Storm Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2 NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  27. Tropical Depression Twenty-One-e Graphics NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  28. Tropical Depression Twenty-One-e Forecast Discussion Number 1 NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  29. Tropical Depression Twenty-One-e Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1 NOAA NHC Pacific ·
  30. Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-One-e (EP1/EP212026) NOAA NHC Pacific ·

Markets on this story

  • Kalshi Category 4 or above 78% −18 $996 24hends 2 Dec 2026

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Category 4 or higher landfall 1% $141 24hends 1 Jan 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

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In this story

  • Hurricane Trudy
  • Miami FL
  • MEXICO

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