Category 4 or above
Why it moved: −19 points at 09:37 UTC, after NOAA NHC Pacific: Hurricane Trudy Graphics — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 78% |
| 15 Oct, 13:31 UTC | 78% |
| 15 Oct, 09:37 UTC | 77% |
| 14 Oct, 09:05 UTC | 96% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Hurricane Trudy attains maximum sustained winds of at least 130 mph. It resolves to No if the storm does not reach this wind speed threshold. Readers often mistake the forecast intensity for the actual measured winds required for resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 78%
- No 22%