Shaw Scores as Manchester City Draw with Real Madrid in Women's Champions League
Khadija Shaw scored the equaliser as Manchester City secured a 1-1 draw against Real Madrid at the Joie Stadium.
First reported by The Guardian Sport, 3 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 38% |
| 2 Oct, 02:30 UTC | 38% |
| 2 Oct, 01:13 UTC | 39% |
| 2 Oct, 00:36 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Oct, 21:44 UTC | 39% |
| 1 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 39% |
| 1 Oct, 20:29 UTC | 37% |
| 1 Oct, 19:19 UTC | 39% |
| 1 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 39% |
| 1 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Oct, 12:07 UTC | 37% |
| 1 Oct, 04:03 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Oct, 03:34 UTC | 37% |
| 30 Sept, 23:53 UTC | 38% |
| 30 Sept, 22:37 UTC | 39% |
| 30 Sept, 21:47 UTC | 38% |
| 30 Sept, 17:51 UTC | 39% |
| 30 Sept, 17:28 UTC | 37% |
| 30 Sept, 16:09 UTC | 38% |
| 30 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 39% |
| 30 Sept, 03:13 UTC | 39% |
| 30 Sept, 02:44 UTC | 38% |
| 29 Sept, 23:46 UTC | 39% |
| 28 Sept, 22:19 UTC | 41% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Manchester City respond.
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 1 Oct 2026. The Guardian Sport published first, on 1 October at 21:08 UTC; BBC Sport followed 3 min later. The most recent article, from SkySports, appeared on 1 October at 21:57 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Guardian Sport (major outlet), BBC Sport, SkySports.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Manchester City — the market puts it at 38%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 13 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Manchester City wins the specified match against Liverpool after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The outcome depends solely on the result of that specific game, excluding extra time or penalties. Readers often mistake the resolution for relying on the final score including extra time or other matches.
- Manchester City — the market puts it at 20%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 13 Jun 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Manchester City wins the 2026-27 English Premier League title. It resolves to No if they do not win that specific championship. Readers often mistake the resolution date for the end of the current season or confuse this with any other league title.
- Manchester City: 75+ Points — the market puts it at 28%, closing 13 Jun 2027. Manchester City must earn at least 75 points during the 2026-27 English Premier League season for the outcome to be Yes. The resolution depends solely on their final league standing in that specific season, not on any financial regulations or past convictions.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Manchester City at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- The Guardian SportShaw secures WCL draw against Real Madrid as Manchester City show spirit after week of turmoil37%
- BBC SportMan City hold on to claim draw against Real Madrid39%▲2 points since the previous source
- SkySportsShaw earns Man City draw with late Real goal dramatically disallowed39%▼1 points since the previous source
- Current odds38%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Manchester City 38%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Manchester City 20%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Manchester City: 75+ Points 28%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Khadija Shaw
- Manchester City
- Real Madrid