S&P 500’s Midterm Election Record Faces Test in 2026
The index has risen in the six months following every midterm Congressional election since 1950.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 33% |
| 1 Nov, 17:42 UTC | 33% |
| 1 Nov, 14:45 UTC | 13% |
| 1 Nov, 13:54 UTC | 35% |
| 31 Oct, 13:36 UTC | 27% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 2 Nov 2026. News Feed published first, on 2 November at 05:00 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Before Dec 1, 2026 — the market puts it at 33%, with $88 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Dec 2026. The outcome is Yes if the S&P 500 Index rises above $8,000 at any time before December 1, 2026. The outcome is No if the index never reaches that level within the specified period. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the deadline, but the resolution depends solely on the index value relative to the fixed end date.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
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Related prediction markets
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- Kalshi Before Dec 1, 2026 33% −2
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In this story
- S&P 500