Portugal Face Norway Without Ronaldo in Nations League Hot: $107k traded on its market in 24 hours
Portugal play Norway in the UEFA Nations League with Cristiano Ronaldo absent from the squad.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 4 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Oct, 12:39 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Oct, 11:30 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Oct, 09:08 UTC | 11% |
| 4 Oct, 05:17 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 8% |
| 4 Oct, 01:07 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Oct, 23:03 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Oct, 21:30 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Oct, 20:50 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Oct, 16:13 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Oct, 03:50 UTC | 19% |
| 2 Oct, 19:36 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 20% |
| 1 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 16% |
| 30 Sept, 19:09 UTC | 20% |
| 29 Sept, 18:17 UTC | 48% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Portugal respond.
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 4 Oct 2026. SI Feed published first, on 4 October at 01:00 UTC; Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera followed 14h 47m later. The most recent article, from Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera, appeared on 4 October at 15:47 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), SI Feed.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Portugal — the market puts it at 5%, with $413 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 28 Jun 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Portugal wins the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League title. It resolves to No if any other team claims the championship. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a specific match for the final tournament result.
- Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04? — the market puts it at 57%, with $107k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 4 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Portugal wins the match against Norway within the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time on October 4, 2026. It resolves to No if the game ends in a draw or loss, is canceled without a make-up, or remains unresolved due to lack of data. Readers often mistake the deadline for resolution, which depends on official statistics being published within two hours after the event concludes.
- Will Norway win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? — the market puts it at 2%, with $918 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 14 Jun 2027. Norway wins if they are the final champion of the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League. The market resolves to No if Norway is eliminated before winning or if the tournament ends without a winner by June 13, 2027. Readers often mistake the linked story about Ronaldo for the resolution criteria instead of the final tournament result.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Portugal at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- SI FeedPortugal vs. Norway—Nations League: Preview, Predictions and Lineups4%
- SI FeedHow to Watch Portugal vs. Norway on TV, Live Stream10%▲6 points since the previous source
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraLIVE: Portugal vs Norway – UEFA Nations League10%
- Current odds5%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Portugal 5% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04? 57% −2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Norway win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? 2% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Portugal
- Norway
- Cristiano Ronaldo
- Bruno Fernandes