Patty García Wins Illinois House Seat Succeeding Chuy García
Democrat Patty García is projected to win the election for Illinois's 4th Congressional District, succeeding her former boss Rep. Jesús “Chuy” García.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
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Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 72% |
| 4 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 72% |
| 3 Nov, 00:46 UTC | 66% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 4 Nov 2026. The Hill published first, on 4 November at 01:08 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Garcia, 27+ pts — the market puts it at 72%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House election in Illinois's 4th District by a margin of 27 percentage points or more. It resolves to No if that party loses or wins by less than 27 points. Readers often mistake the linked story about Patty García for the actual resolution criteria, but the outcome depends solely on the final vote margin in the 2026 election.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
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Related prediction markets
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- Kalshi Garcia, 27+ pts 72%
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In this story
- Patty García
- Chuy García