Nobel Prizes 2026 Awards to Be Announced This Week Hot: $180k traded on its market in 24 hours
Six Nobel awards in science, literature, economics and peace will be announced this week.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 04:07 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 02:50 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Oct, 18:36 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Oct, 16:13 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Oct, 03:25 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Oct, 02:02 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Oct, 07:15 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 17:22 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 16:52 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 15:43 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 14:45 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 12:15 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 06:29 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 02:43 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 00:51 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 16:09 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 12:16 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 11:33 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 11:18 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 09:44 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 03:49 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 17:16 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 13:42 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 12:40 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 13:20 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 10:16 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 2% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 4 Oct 2026. The New York Times published first, on 4 October at 09:02 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? — the market puts it at 1%, with $180k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Apr 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump is named the sole winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, or if he is among joint recipients and ranks highest according to the specific precedence rules. It resolves to No if any other individual or organization wins, or if none of the listed candidates receive the award.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Polymarket Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? 1%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?