Musk Says ASML Expediting Chip Gear for Tesla, SpaceX Terafab Hot: $51k traded on its market in 24 hours

The story so far

2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 20 Oct 2026. Bloomberg Technology published first, on 20 October at 21:52 UTC; Latest from Tom's Hardware followed 17h 38m later. The most recent article, from Latest from Tom's Hardware, appeared on 21 October at 15:30 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg Technology (major outlet), Latest from Tom's Hardware.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Terafab — the market puts it at 93%, with $10 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Mar 2027. The market resolves to Yes if a Tesla representative mentions Terafab during the upcoming Tesla earnings call or its question-and-answer session. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake this for a prediction about whether Intel will remain involved, but the outcome depends solely on whether the word 'Terafab' is spoken by Tesla.
• Before 2027 — the market puts it at 2%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk ceases to be Tesla's CEO before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if he remains in that role through the end of 2026. Readers often mistake the release date of the linked documentary for the resolution deadline.
• Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — the market puts it at 0%, with $51k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 8 Nov 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, as confirmed by official party sources. It resolves to No in all other cases, including if he loses the nomination or if a different candidate replaces him before the election. Readers often mistake the resolution source for news reports rather than official Republican Party announcements.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.