IMF Forecasts Middle East Economy Shrinkage in 2026 Amid War

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 13 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 13 October at 05:59 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Iraq — the market puts it at 8%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a level 3 or lower travel advisory for Iraq before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if no such advisory action occurs by that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Turkey as the deciding factor, but only official U.S. State Department travel advisories count.
• Before 2027 — the market puts it at 3%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the International Monetary Fund officially declares a global recession in its World Economic Outlook reports before 2027. It resolves to No if that specific declaration does not occur within the deadline. Readers often mistake general economic downturns or news headlines for an official IMF declaration.
• Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 1%, with $1 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Israel and Qatar establish formal diplomatic ties before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if this normalization does not occur by that date. Readers often mistake the closure of the UK consulate in East Jerusalem for the triggering event, but only Israeli-Qatari relations matter.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.