Iraq
Implied probability 7%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 7% |
| 1 Oct, 09:38 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Sept, 19:24 UTC | 7% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a level 3 or lower travel advisory for Iraq before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if no such advisory action occurs by that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Turkey as the deciding factor, but only official U.S. State Department travel advisories count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 7%
- No 93%