France Imposes Nightly Curfews in Paris and Lyon After Riots Hot: Odds moved 28 points in 24 hours
Authorities enforce overnight restrictions in central districts to restore order following weekend riots and looting.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 59% |
| 21 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 59% |
| 21 Oct, 06:37 UTC | 52% |
| 21 Oct, 06:23 UTC | 50% |
| 20 Oct, 06:23 UTC | 57% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 20 Oct 2026. France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines published first, on 20 October at 19:01 UTC; NPR World followed 10h 36m later. The most recent article, from NPR World, appeared on 21 October at 05:37 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: NPR World (major outlet), France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31? — the market puts it at 59%, with $5k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Oct 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if at least one full calendar day passes in Paris without any curfew being in effect between the market's creation date and October 31, inclusive. A curfew counts only if it is an official government order restricting public movement for the general population within Paris city limits.
- Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 24? — the market puts it at 19%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 24 Oct 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if there is at least one full calendar day between the market's creation date and October 24 (inclusive) when no curfew is in effect anywhere within Lyon’s official municipal boundaries, measured in Lyon time.
- France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026? — the market puts it at 3%, with $4k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege enters into effect in France by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. This decree must explicitly constitute a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution and cover any part of the French Republic, including overseas territories.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Polymarket Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31? 59% +2
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- Polymarket Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 24? 19% −28
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Wrong market?
- Polymarket France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026? 3%
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