France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?
Implied probability 3%
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$72k
Liquidity$50k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 06:23 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 16:49 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 15:51 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 14:10 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 12:39 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 12:09 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 11:36 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 09:04 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 07:19 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 06:48 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 06:13 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 3% |
| 19 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 4% |
| 19 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 4% |
| 19 Oct, 02:22 UTC | 4% |
| 19 Oct, 01:20 UTC | 4% |
| 19 Oct, 00:44 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 23:22 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 22:14 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 21:20 UTC | 7% |
| 18 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 6% |
| 18 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 8% |
| 18 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 8% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege enters into effect in France by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. This decree must explicitly constitute a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution and cover any part of the French Republic, including overseas territories.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%
Trade this market on Polymarket →