Florida Rep. Jared Moskowitz Says Constituent Arrested for Death Threats
A man in Florida’s 23rd District was arrested after making death threats against the lawmaker, who confirmed the news on social media.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 85% |
| 23 Oct, 15:20 UTC | 85% |
| 23 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 83% |
| 23 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 85% |
| 23 Oct, 01:18 UTC | 84% |
| 22 Oct, 23:13 UTC | 86% |
| 22 Oct, 16:47 UTC | 88% |
| 22 Oct, 04:05 UTC | 89% |
| 22 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 90% |
| 21 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 89% |
| 20 Oct, 23:34 UTC | 90% |
| 20 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 84% |
| 15 Oct, 15:38 UTC | 80% |
| 15 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 79% |
| 14 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 80% |
| 26 Sept, 08:02 UTC | 77% |
| 26 Sept, 06:00 UTC | 73% |
| 26 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 72% |
| 26 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 73% |
| 25 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 72% |
| 25 Sept, 14:16 UTC | 75% |
| 24 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 71% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 22 Oct 2026. The Hill published first, on 22 October at 21:08 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Jared Moskowitz — the market puts it at 85%, with $624 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The outcome is Yes if the person elected to represent Florida's 25th congressional district for the term starting in 2027 belongs to the Democratic Party. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a constituent arrest for the actual resolution criteria.
- At least 50% — the market puts it at 79%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Jared Moskowitz receives at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida 25th Congressional District House election. The outcome depends on the certified percentage of votes from that specific race. Readers often mistake this for a prediction of his victory rather than a threshold check on his vote share.
- Moskowitz, 10+ pts — the market puts it at 29%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The outcome is Yes if Democrats win Florida’s 25th District House seat by at least 10 percentage points in the 2026 election. The outcome is No if they win by less than 10 points or lose the race. Readers often mistake this for a prediction about Moskowitz’s personal performance rather than the party’s margin of victory.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Jared Moskowitz 85%
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- Kalshi At least 50% 79%
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Wrong market?
- Kalshi Moskowitz, 10+ pts 29%
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In this story
- Jared Moskowitz