NewsMarkets

Politics

Farage attends PMQs despite Reform's poor polling performance

Nigel Farage appeared at Prime Minister's Questions in Westminster, defying expectations after his party's recent decline in the polls.

1 publisher · 1 article · first seen 4 Nov 2026 · updated 3d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day

The odds

How the odds moved · Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?
0%50%100%6%11 Sept, 18:39 UTCnowThe Guardian US: The pollsters had got it wrong on the US midterms, said Nige. That aged well · 4 Nov, 18:02 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now6%
6 Nov, 07:38 UTC6%
6 Nov, 07:24 UTC7%
5 Nov, 22:32 UTC7%
5 Nov, 22:11 UTC7%
5 Nov, 03:51 UTC7%
5 Nov, 02:54 UTC7%
5 Nov, 01:49 UTC6%
4 Nov, 11:54 UTC6%
4 Nov, 02:34 UTC6%
4 Nov, 02:19 UTC6%
3 Nov, 21:49 UTC7%
2 Nov, 00:55 UTC8%
2 Nov, 00:04 UTC8%
1 Nov, 23:57 UTC8%
31 Oct, 10:38 UTC8%
30 Oct, 14:38 UTC8%
30 Oct, 08:41 UTC8%
29 Oct, 19:08 UTC8%
29 Oct, 18:06 UTC9%
28 Oct, 18:22 UTC7%
28 Oct, 17:47 UTC7%
28 Oct, 01:42 UTC8%
27 Oct, 12:00 UTC8%
27 Oct, 08:54 UTC8%
27 Oct, 02:58 UTC8%
27 Oct, 01:53 UTC8%
27 Oct, 00:59 UTC8%
26 Oct, 21:25 UTC8%
26 Oct, 14:30 UTC8%
26 Oct, 14:23 UTC8%
26 Oct, 13:47 UTC8%
26 Oct, 07:24 UTC8%
26 Oct, 06:58 UTC9%
26 Oct, 06:13 UTC9%
26 Oct, 01:52 UTC10%
25 Oct, 15:17 UTC8%
25 Oct, 11:14 UTC8%
25 Oct, 10:06 UTC9%
25 Oct, 09:58 UTC9%
25 Oct, 09:21 UTC9%
25 Oct, 08:53 UTC9%
25 Oct, 08:07 UTC8%
25 Oct, 02:49 UTC9%
24 Oct, 22:05 UTC10%
24 Oct, 21:51 UTC9%
24 Oct, 08:23 UTC8%
24 Oct, 01:48 UTC8%
23 Oct, 23:50 UTC8%
23 Oct, 22:56 UTC8%
23 Oct, 21:11 UTC9%
23 Oct, 20:49 UTC8%
23 Oct, 20:19 UTC8%
23 Oct, 18:48 UTC8%
23 Oct, 18:07 UTC8%
23 Oct, 13:37 UTC9%
23 Oct, 11:48 UTC8%
22 Oct, 21:23 UTC8%
22 Oct, 17:02 UTC9%
22 Oct, 16:54 UTC8%
22 Oct, 16:26 UTC8%
22 Oct, 10:53 UTC8%
22 Oct, 09:11 UTC9%
22 Oct, 08:53 UTC8%
22 Oct, 08:29 UTC8%
21 Oct, 17:27 UTC9%
21 Oct, 10:10 UTC9%
20 Oct, 15:30 UTC9%
20 Oct, 15:23 UTC8%
20 Oct, 13:45 UTC9%
20 Oct, 11:55 UTC9%
20 Oct, 07:49 UTC10%
20 Oct, 06:58 UTC11%
20 Oct, 05:47 UTC12%
18 Oct, 04:11 UTC8%
18 Oct, 03:23 UTC7%
18 Oct, 01:23 UTC7%
17 Oct, 23:10 UTC7%
17 Oct, 21:45 UTC8%
17 Oct, 21:11 UTC7%
17 Oct, 20:57 UTC8%
17 Oct, 20:12 UTC7%
17 Oct, 19:51 UTC8%
17 Oct, 19:25 UTC7%
17 Oct, 18:50 UTC7%
17 Oct, 17:35 UTC7%
17 Oct, 17:21 UTC7%
17 Oct, 16:52 UTC8%
17 Oct, 16:23 UTC7%
17 Oct, 13:34 UTC7%
16 Oct, 21:42 UTC8%
16 Oct, 21:23 UTC9%
16 Oct, 19:27 UTC8%
16 Oct, 17:01 UTC8%
16 Oct, 11:58 UTC7%
16 Oct, 10:55 UTC7%
16 Oct, 09:54 UTC7%
16 Oct, 09:06 UTC7%
16 Oct, 08:59 UTC7%
16 Oct, 08:13 UTC8%
16 Oct, 06:56 UTC7%
16 Oct, 06:29 UTC7%
16 Oct, 05:42 UTC7%
16 Oct, 05:21 UTC8%
16 Oct, 04:29 UTC7%
15 Oct, 00:35 UTC7%
14 Oct, 23:41 UTC7%
14 Oct, 12:19 UTC7%
12 Oct, 14:48 UTC7%
11 Oct, 02:11 UTC7%
10 Oct, 22:07 UTC7%
10 Oct, 10:58 UTC7%
10 Oct, 09:42 UTC7%
10 Oct, 07:57 UTC7%
10 Oct, 06:57 UTC7%
9 Oct, 08:28 UTC7%
9 Oct, 01:42 UTC7%
8 Oct, 22:10 UTC9%
8 Oct, 19:58 UTC9%
7 Oct, 22:51 UTC8%
7 Oct, 20:43 UTC10%
7 Oct, 15:03 UTC10%
6 Oct, 20:30 UTC10%
6 Oct, 17:53 UTC11%
5 Oct, 15:49 UTC10%
5 Oct, 11:44 UTC11%
5 Oct, 10:21 UTC10%
5 Oct, 09:01 UTC10%
5 Oct, 08:05 UTC11%
5 Oct, 07:08 UTC10%
5 Oct, 06:42 UTC11%
4 Oct, 16:25 UTC10%
4 Oct, 09:47 UTC10%
4 Oct, 02:56 UTC11%
3 Oct, 23:22 UTC10%
3 Oct, 22:49 UTC10%
3 Oct, 22:23 UTC11%
3 Oct, 20:30 UTC10%
3 Oct, 20:23 UTC11%
3 Oct, 14:41 UTC10%
3 Oct, 14:27 UTC11%
3 Oct, 12:43 UTC10%
3 Oct, 06:26 UTC10%
2 Oct, 14:21 UTC9%
2 Oct, 13:55 UTC10%
2 Oct, 12:51 UTC9%
2 Oct, 06:24 UTC9%
2 Oct, 05:58 UTC9%
2 Oct, 05:18 UTC9%
2 Oct, 04:59 UTC9%
2 Oct, 04:28 UTC9%
2 Oct, 03:35 UTC10%
2 Oct, 02:56 UTC9%
2 Oct, 02:23 UTC10%
2 Oct, 01:40 UTC9%
2 Oct, 01:26 UTC9%
1 Oct, 18:50 UTC11%
1 Oct, 18:28 UTC10%
1 Oct, 16:06 UTC10%
1 Oct, 15:27 UTC9%
1 Oct, 13:30 UTC10%
1 Oct, 13:21 UTC10%
1 Oct, 12:38 UTC10%
1 Oct, 12:24 UTC10%
1 Oct, 10:42 UTC10%
1 Oct, 09:59 UTC10%
30 Sept, 22:29 UTC10%
30 Sept, 20:39 UTC10%
29 Sept, 13:27 UTC10%
29 Sept, 12:48 UTC10%
29 Sept, 09:30 UTC10%
29 Sept, 06:22 UTC9%
28 Sept, 12:49 UTC9%
20 Sept, 18:52 UTC12%
19 Sept, 08:09 UTC13%
18 Sept, 01:59 UTC13%
17 Sept, 15:39 UTC14%
14 Sept, 16:18 UTC13%
14 Sept, 11:28 UTC12%
13 Sept, 16:47 UTC13%
13 Sept, 07:45 UTC14%
12 Sept, 18:39 UTC14%
11 Sept, 18:39 UTC19%

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 4 Nov 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 4 November at 18:02 UTC.

One prediction market prices this story:

  • Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? — the market puts it at 6%, with $135 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Nigel Farage stops being the leader of Reform UK at any point before January 1, 2027. An early announcement of his resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution, even if the change happens later. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of 2026 instead of the start of 2027.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. The pollsters had got it wrong on the US midterms, said Nige. That aged well The Guardian US ·

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Polymarket Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? 6% −1 $135 24hends 1 Jan 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

Have your say

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

Email me when the odds move

We email a link to confirm first. At most one alert email every six hours; unsubscribe in one click. Privacy

In this story

  • Nigel Farage
  • Reform
Embed this story

Paste this into any web page to show the live odds, with a link back here.