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EU Leaders Gather in Budapest for Hungarian Revolution Anniversary

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen joins other guests in Budapest to mark the 70th anniversary of the 1956 uprising, signaling a reset in EU ties after Viktor Orbán's ouster.

1 publisher · 1 article · first seen 23 Oct 2026 · updated 2d ago

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The odds

How the odds moved · Hungary
0%50%100%1%6 Oct, 18:47 UTCnowABC News: European leaders gather in Budapest for anniversary of Hungarian revolution as Magyar resets EU ties · 23 Oct, 18:54 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now1%
23 Oct, 20:05 UTC1%
6 Oct, 18:47 UTC3%

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 23 Oct 2026. ABC News published first, on 23 October at 18:54 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • Hungary — the market puts it at 1%, closing 1 Jan 2029. The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in Hungary before January 1, 2029. This meeting must occur after their scheduled encounter in Alaska on August 15, 2025. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a disinformation conference as the resolution criteria, but only the specific location and date of the Trump-Putin meeting matter.
  • Hungary — the market puts it at 4%, closing 31 Dec 2028. The outcome is Yes if Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet in Hungary before December 31, 2028. The outcome is No if that meeting does not happen by that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Hungarian immunity laws for the actual event required to resolve the market.
  • Hungary — the market puts it at 4%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump physically travels to and is present within Hungary between now and January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if he does not meet this condition by that deadline. Readers often mistake the linked story about Hungarian politics for the trigger, but only Trump's physical presence matters.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. European leaders gather in Budapest for anniversary of Hungarian revolution as Magyar resets EU ties ABC News ·

Related prediction markets

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  • Kalshi Hungary 1% $0 24hends 1 Jan 2029

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  • Kalshi Hungary 4% $0 24hends 31 Dec 2028

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    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Hungary 4% $0 24hends 1 Jan 2027

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    Wrong market?

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In this story

  • Ursula von der Leyen
  • Viktor Orbán
  • European Commission
  • Hungary
  • Budapest
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