Elon Musk Regains Trillionaire Status as SpaceX Stock Surges
Forbes estimates his net worth at $1 trillion after the company's stock rose more than 5% on Monday.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 70% |
| 5 Oct, 21:33 UTC | 70% |
| 5 Oct, 11:30 UTC | 68% |
| 4 Oct, 21:18 UTC | 70% |
| 4 Oct, 17:47 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Oct, 07:44 UTC | 70% |
| 3 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 67% |
| 3 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 68% |
| 2 Oct, 16:37 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 62% |
| 1 Oct, 13:32 UTC | 61% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 5 Oct 2026. Quartz published first, on 5 October at 18:06 UTC; All Content from Business Insider followed 6h 33m later. The most recent article, from All Content from Business Insider, appeared on 6 October at 00:39 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Quartz, All Content from Business Insider.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Above $800 billion — the market puts it at 70%, with $42 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Forbes reports Elon Musk's net worth exceeds $800 billion on December 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the source of truth, assuming any financial report counts instead of only Forbes.
- More than $1.4 trillion — the market puts it at 19%, with $80 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Elon Musk’s net worth exceeds $1.4 trillion before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if his net worth does not reach that amount by that date. Readers often mistake the source of truth for net worth calculations or the specific deadline.
- Elon Musk — the market puts it at 99%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Elon Musk ranks among the three wealthiest people globally on December 31, 2026. The outcome is No if he does not meet this wealth threshold on that specific date. Readers often mistake the release of a documentary or other news events for the resolution criteria, but only his net worth ranking on the deadline matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Above $800 billion 70%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi More than $1.4 trillion 19% −6
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Elon Musk 99%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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