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Democrat Beau Bayh Wins Indiana Secretary of State Race

Beau Bayh defeats Republican Max Engling to become the first Democrat elected to statewide office in Indiana since 2012.

1 publisher · 1 article · first seen 4 Nov 2026 · updated 3d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

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The odds

How the odds moved · Republican
0%50%100%87%3 Nov, 15:59 UTCnowThe Hill: First Democrat wins statewide office in Indiana since 2012 · 4 Nov, 16:14 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now87%
4 Nov, 16:20 UTC87%
3 Nov, 15:59 UTC88%

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 4 Nov 2026. The Hill published first, on 4 November at 16:14 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • Republican — the market puts it at 87%, closing 7 Nov 2029. The market resolves to Yes if a Republican is inaugurated as Indiana's governor after the 2028 election. It resolves to No if any other candidate wins that specific office and term. Readers often mistake this for a general election outcome or confuse it with other statewide races, but only the gubernatorial inauguration matters.
  • Republican party — the market puts it at 82%, closing 7 Nov 2029. The market resolves to Yes if a Republican is sworn in as an Indiana Senator for the term starting in 2029. It resolves to No otherwise. Readers often mistake this outcome for being determined by current elections or other offices, but only the specific 2029 Senate seat matters.
  • Indiana — the market puts it at 8%, with $6k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 23 Feb 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Indiana wins the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. It resolves to No otherwise. Readers often mistake any regular-season or playoff victory for a win, but only the final championship game counts.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. First Democrat wins statewide office in Indiana since 2012 The Hill ·

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Kalshi Republican 87% $0 24hends 7 Nov 2029

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Republican party 82% $0 24hends 7 Nov 2029

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Indiana 8% −1 $6k 24hends 23 Feb 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

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In this story

  • Beau Bayh
  • Max Engling
  • Indiana
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