Canavan eyes lower house move as One Nation pollster warns of wipeout

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 23 Oct 2026. The Guardian published first, on 23 October at 03:59 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election? — the market puts it at 81%, with $858 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 29 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if the Liberal–National Coalition wins more seats than any other party in Victoria's Legislative Assembly. The outcome is No if another party or coalition secures the most seats. Readers often mistake the deadline for when results are known, but the market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting or official Victorian Electoral Commission results.
• Will Liberal–National win the third-most seats in the next New South Wales state election? — the market puts it at 30%, with $325 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 28 Mar 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Liberal–National Coalition wins the third-most seats in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly after the 2027 state election. It resolves to No if any other party or coalition takes that position. Readers often mistake the deadline for when results are known, but the resolution depends on the final seat count confirmed by the NSW Electoral Commission.
• One Nation — the market puts it at 59%, closing 28 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if One Nation holds the third-most seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly after the 2026 state election. It resolves to No if they do not hold that position. Readers often mistake the linked news story about abortion funding for the actual resolution criteria.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.