Brazil's Flavio Bolsonaro Probed for Corruption Over Film Funding

The Brazilian Senator faces a Supreme Court investigation into alleged corruption and money laundering linked to financing a biopic about his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro.

7 publishers · 10 articles · first seen 11 Sept 2026 · updated 41d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

First reported by South China Morning Post, 35 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first

This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day

The odds

How the odds moved · Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?

Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 3 more published before price tracking began

Price data

Time	Chance of yes
now	100%
5 Oct, 01:29 UTC	100%
4 Oct, 23:51 UTC	100%
4 Oct, 23:25 UTC	99%
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4 Oct, 16:05 UTC	35%
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3 Oct, 22:23 UTC	30%
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1 Oct, 14:37 UTC	31%
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30 Sept, 22:59 UTC	31%
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22 Sept, 16:09 UTC	28%
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22 Sept, 14:12 UTC	27%
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22 Sept, 13:15 UTC	29%
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21 Sept, 20:11 UTC	32%
21 Sept, 17:43 UTC	33%
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21 Sept, 12:17 UTC	31%
21 Sept, 09:56 UTC	32%
21 Sept, 04:00 UTC	31%
21 Sept, 03:42 UTC	32%
21 Sept, 02:27 UTC	31%
21 Sept, 01:48 UTC	31%
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21 Sept, 00:38 UTC	29%
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20 Sept, 21:46 UTC	30%
20 Sept, 16:44 UTC	32%
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20 Sept, 06:58 UTC	31%
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19 Sept, 18:03 UTC	28%
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18 Sept, 04:20 UTC	23%
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16 Sept, 09:05 UTC	23%
16 Sept, 08:14 UTC	21%
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16 Sept, 05:39 UTC	21%
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16 Sept, 04:57 UTC	20%
16 Sept, 03:51 UTC	23%
15 Sept, 06:54 UTC	23%
15 Sept, 05:47 UTC	23%
15 Sept, 04:07 UTC	24%
15 Sept, 03:59 UTC	24%
14 Sept, 23:36 UTC	24%
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14 Sept, 06:13 UTC	23%
14 Sept, 01:56 UTC	22%
13 Sept, 00:13 UTC	23%
12 Sept, 20:23 UTC	22%
12 Sept, 19:45 UTC	22%
12 Sept, 19:21 UTC	21%
12 Sept, 18:39 UTC	22%
11 Sept, 18:39 UTC	24%

The story so far

7 publishers have covered this in 10 articles since 11 Sept 2026. South China Morning Post published first, on 11 September at 15:45 UTC; France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines followed 36 min later. The most recent article, from Deadline, appeared on 15 September at 13:11 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: ABC News (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), South China Morning Post, France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines, Deutsche Welle, Times of India, Deadline.

3 prediction markets price this story:

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? — resolved “Yes” on 5 Oct 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if Flavio Bolsonaro receives more valid first-round votes than any other candidate in the October 4, 2026 election. The No outcome applies if he does not receive the most votes. Readers often mistake poll numbers for actual results; only the final vote count from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court determines the winner.
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? — resolved “Yes” on 5 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva advances to the runoff or wins the first round outright. It resolves to No if he fails to reach the second round or if the election result is not confirmed by June 30, 2027. Readers often mistake the polling data in the linked story for the actual election outcome.
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? — resolved “No” on 5 Oct 2026.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

11 Sept, 15:45South China Morning Post Brazil’s Flavio Bolsonaro under investigation over alleged corruption—
11 Sept, 16:21France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Flavio Bolsonaro probed for corruption as Brazil election tightens—
11 Sept, 17:44ABC News Brazil's Flávio Bolsonaro investigated over payments from disgraced banker—
11 Sept, 22:57Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Flavio Bolsonaro faces corruption probe weeks before Brazil election24%
12 Sept, 09:37Deutsche Welle Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro faces corruption probe weeks before election24%
13 Sept, 11:08France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Brazil: Michelle Bolsonaro's key role in the presidential race23%▼1 points since the previous source
13 Sept, 20:10ABC News Brazil Supreme Court justice unseals probe into Bolsonaro biopic, citing suspected criminal funding23%
14 Sept, 10:59France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Thousands rally in support of Brazil's Lula as election campaigning heats up23%
14 Sept, 16:52Times of India Brazil election heats up: Lula, Flavio Bolsonaro locked in razor-thin runoff race23%
15 Sept, 13:11Deadline Jair Bolsonaro Biopic ‘Dark Horse’ Under Police Probe In Brazil Linked To Illegal Funding23%▲1 points since the previous source
5 Oct, 03:45Market resolved: Yes

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

Show 4 more sources

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

Resolved Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? Yes 22d ago
The market favoured No at 60% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right

Wrong market?

What's wrong
Resolved Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 22d ago
The market favoured Yes at 96% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Wrong market?

What's wrong
Resolved Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? No 22d ago
The market favoured No at 89% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Wrong market?

What's wrong

In this story

Flavio Bolsonaro
Jair Bolsonaro
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva
Brazil Supreme Court
Banco Master

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