Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
The market favoured No at 60% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Why it moved: +29 points at 21:18 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Brazil election results live: Lula and Bolsonaro locked in a tight race — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 5 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Oct, 23:51 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Oct, 22:37 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Oct, 21:50 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Oct, 21:18 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 59% |
| 4 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 36% |
| 4 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 35% |
| 4 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 32% |
| 4 Oct, 18:54 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Oct, 17:40 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 33% |
| 4 Oct, 16:05 UTC | 35% |
| 4 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 35% |
| 4 Oct, 15:25 UTC | 35% |
| 4 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 36% |
| 4 Oct, 14:14 UTC | 35% |
| 4 Oct, 13:32 UTC | 38% |
| 4 Oct, 12:13 UTC | 39% |
| 4 Oct, 11:23 UTC | 39% |
| 4 Oct, 07:12 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 40% |
| 4 Oct, 04:13 UTC | 40% |
| 4 Oct, 03:53 UTC | 40% |
| 4 Oct, 01:39 UTC | 39% |
| 4 Oct, 01:20 UTC | 39% |
| 4 Oct, 00:47 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 39% |
| 3 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 39% |
| 3 Oct, 23:29 UTC | 39% |
| 3 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 39% |
| 3 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 30% |
| 3 Oct, 19:09 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Oct, 18:16 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Oct, 10:17 UTC | 26% |
| 3 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 26% |
| 3 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 27% |
| 2 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 25% |
| 2 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Oct, 19:50 UTC | 25% |
| 2 Oct, 18:33 UTC | 23% |
| 2 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Oct, 15:51 UTC | 27% |
| 2 Oct, 01:13 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 19:12 UTC | 29% |
| 1 Oct, 18:28 UTC | 29% |
| 1 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 29% |
| 1 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 31% |
| 1 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 31% |
| 1 Oct, 13:13 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 12:38 UTC | 31% |
| 1 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 31% |
| 1 Oct, 09:38 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 04:30 UTC | 32% |
| 1 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 32% |
| 1 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 32% |
| 1 Oct, 00:01 UTC | 33% |
| 30 Sept, 22:59 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Sept, 22:21 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Sept, 21:47 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 21:08 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 20:39 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 20:16 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 19:53 UTC | 29% |
| 30 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 27% |
| 30 Sept, 12:53 UTC | 25% |
| 30 Sept, 12:16 UTC | 26% |
| 30 Sept, 11:47 UTC | 25% |
| 30 Sept, 11:18 UTC | 26% |
| 30 Sept, 09:44 UTC | 25% |
| 30 Sept, 07:58 UTC | 26% |
| 30 Sept, 05:45 UTC | 27% |
| 30 Sept, 03:56 UTC | 26% |
| 29 Sept, 23:15 UTC | 25% |
| 29 Sept, 21:32 UTC | 24% |
| 29 Sept, 14:53 UTC | 24% |
| 29 Sept, 14:15 UTC | 25% |
| 29 Sept, 10:52 UTC | 25% |
| 28 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 26% |
| 28 Sept, 09:19 UTC | 26% |
| 28 Sept, 07:51 UTC | 27% |
| 28 Sept, 06:36 UTC | 26% |
| 28 Sept, 06:24 UTC | 27% |
| 28 Sept, 05:11 UTC | 26% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if Flavio Bolsonaro receives more valid first-round votes than any other candidate in the October 4, 2026 election. The No outcome applies if he does not receive the most votes. Readers often mistake poll numbers for actual results; only the final vote count from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court determines the winner.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →