Brazil Hedge Funds Suffer 24% Losses After Lula Shock
Hedge fund managers in Brazil are reporting steep losses after political developments linked to President Lula.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 62% |
| 29 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 62% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 30 Oct 2026. Bloomberg Markets published first, on 30 October at 14:29 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Above 4.70% — the market puts it at 62%, closing 12 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Brazil's annual inflation rate exceeds 4.70% in October 2026. It resolves to No if the rate is 4.70% or lower during that same month. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the relevant measurement period.
- Above 6.00% — the market puts it at 7%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to "Yes" if any reported annual inflation rate in Brazil exceeds 6.00% before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to "No." Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the year rather than the specific date of January 1, 2027.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Above 4.70% 62%
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- Kalshi Above 6.00% 7%
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In this story
- Brazil
- Lula