Bosnian Serb Leader Says Bosnia Is 'Dead' Ahead of Election
Milorad Dodik declares the country is 'dead' during a final campaign rally before upcoming elections.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 40% |
| 4 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 39% |
| 4 Oct, 16:48 UTC | 40% |
| 4 Oct, 16:18 UTC | 38% |
| 4 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 38% |
| 4 Oct, 15:25 UTC | 38% |
| 4 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 40% |
| 4 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 42% |
| 4 Oct, 13:54 UTC | 39% |
| 4 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 46% |
| 4 Oct, 12:19 UTC | 45% |
| 4 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 43% |
| 4 Oct, 11:23 UTC | 43% |
| 4 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 42% |
| 4 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Oct, 08:43 UTC | 40% |
| 4 Oct, 08:04 UTC | 39% |
| 4 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 45% |
| 4 Oct, 06:52 UTC | 43% |
| 4 Oct, 04:45 UTC | 42% |
| 4 Oct, 04:26 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Oct, 03:34 UTC | 42% |
| 4 Oct, 03:03 UTC | 41% |
| 4 Oct, 01:33 UTC | 42% |
| 4 Oct, 01:26 UTC | 40% |
| 4 Oct, 00:47 UTC | 38% |
| 4 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Oct, 23:29 UTC | 41% |
| 3 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 41% |
| 3 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Oct, 21:30 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 39% |
| 3 Oct, 19:42 UTC | 40% |
| 3 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 45% |
| 3 Oct, 16:46 UTC | 45% |
| 3 Oct, 15:40 UTC | 45% |
| 3 Oct, 15:20 UTC | 45% |
| 3 Oct, 14:41 UTC | 45% |
| 3 Oct, 14:05 UTC | 45% |
| 3 Oct, 13:58 UTC | 45% |
| 3 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 46% |
| 3 Oct, 12:49 UTC | 48% |
| 3 Oct, 12:15 UTC | 53% |
| 3 Oct, 11:54 UTC | 55% |
| 3 Oct, 11:21 UTC | 57% |
| 3 Oct, 10:55 UTC | 62% |
| 3 Oct, 10:23 UTC | 68% |
| 3 Oct, 09:41 UTC | 69% |
| 3 Oct, 09:07 UTC | 54% |
| 3 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 51% |
| 2 Oct, 08:30 UTC | 36% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will Slaven Kovačević be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? respond.
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 3 articles since 3 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 3 October at 07:57 UTC. The most recent article, from Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera, appeared on 4 October at 15:16 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Will Slaven Kovačević be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? — the market puts it at 40%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 5 Oct 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if Slaven Kovačević is officially elected as the Croat member of the Presidency following the October 4, 2026 general election. The No outcome applies if he is not the elected member or if no one is elected by the March 31, 2027 deadline. Readers often mistake interim or caretaker members for valid outcomes, but only the officially elected individual counts.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will Slaven Kovačević be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraBosnian Serb leader says Bosnia is ‘dead’ ahead of election36%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraDodik declared Bosnia ‘dead’. Irrelevant rhetoric or serious threat?42%▲6 points since the previous source
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraDodik urges Serb turnout against ‘Sarajevo crooks’ in Bosnia election40%▼2 points since the previous source
- Current odds40%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Dodik urges Serb turnout against ‘Sarajevo crooks’ in Bosnia election Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Dodik declared Bosnia ‘dead’. Irrelevant rhetoric or serious threat? Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Bosnian Serb leader says Bosnia is ‘dead’ ahead of election Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
Markets on this story
- Polymarket Will Slaven Kovačević be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? 40% −5
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In this story
- Milorad Dodik
- Bosnia and Herzegovina