BC Election: NDP Premier Eby Risks Historic Misfire as Conservatives Lead Polls
Polls show the Conservatives leading ahead of the British Columbia election, putting NDP Premier David Eby at risk of a historic defeat.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 21:21 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 14:41 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 19:09 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Oct, 17:01 UTC | 15% |
| 23 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 9% |
| 23 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 7% |
| 22 Oct, 20:51 UTC | 13% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 2 articles since 23 Oct 2026. Bloomberg.com published first, on 23 October at 21:34 UTC. The most recent article, from Bloomberg Markets, appeared on 25 October at 04:08 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- David Eby — resolved “No” on 26 Oct 2026. The outcome is Yes if David Eby becomes Premier of British Columbia after the 2026 election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 24, 2027. The outcome is No otherwise. Readers often mistake the date of the election for the deadline; the actual cutoff is Oct 24, 2027.
- BC Conservatives — the market puts it at 1%, closing 24 Oct 2027. The outcome is Yes if the Conservative Party of B.C. finishes second in the 2026 provincial election based on official certified results. The outcome is No if they do not finish second. Readers often mistake current polling numbers for the final result, but only the certified election results count.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved David Eby No 1h ago
The market favoured No at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi BC Conservatives 1%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
In this story
- NDP
- Eby
- Conservatives
- China
- Chery