David Eby
The market favoured No at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$5
Total volume$7k
Liquidity$7k
Resolved24 Oct 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 21:21 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 14:41 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 19:09 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Oct, 17:01 UTC | 15% |
| 23 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 9% |
| 23 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 7% |
| 22 Oct, 20:51 UTC | 13% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if David Eby becomes Premier of British Columbia after the 2026 election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 24, 2027. The outcome is No otherwise. Readers often mistake the date of the election for the deadline; the actual cutoff is Oct 24, 2027.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%