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Coverage vs. odds, last two weeks

How much the press wrote about IBM each day, and what its busiest market did over the same days.

563 articles in 14 days, per day.

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?

How the odds moved · Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?

Price data

Time	Chance of yes
now	56%
22 Oct, 09:18 UTC	56%
22 Oct, 08:46 UTC	56%
22 Oct, 07:08 UTC	52%
22 Oct, 06:53 UTC	52%
22 Oct, 06:08 UTC	52%
22 Oct, 05:53 UTC	51%
22 Oct, 05:25 UTC	52%
21 Oct, 23:35 UTC	53%
21 Oct, 23:28 UTC	54%
21 Oct, 20:20 UTC	54%
21 Oct, 19:39 UTC	53%
21 Oct, 19:02 UTC	53%
21 Oct, 18:41 UTC	52%
21 Oct, 18:05 UTC	55%
21 Oct, 17:50 UTC	54%
21 Oct, 16:01 UTC	54%
21 Oct, 15:25 UTC	54%
21 Oct, 11:01 UTC	56%
21 Oct, 10:47 UTC	55%
21 Oct, 10:10 UTC	52%
21 Oct, 08:44 UTC	52%
21 Oct, 08:24 UTC	51%
21 Oct, 07:29 UTC	50%
21 Oct, 06:23 UTC	49%
21 Oct, 05:06 UTC	50%
21 Oct, 04:59 UTC	51%
21 Oct, 03:36 UTC	50%
21 Oct, 02:48 UTC	50%
21 Oct, 02:27 UTC	50%
21 Oct, 01:31 UTC	50%
21 Oct, 00:22 UTC	50%
20 Oct, 19:41 UTC	49%
20 Oct, 19:21 UTC	49%
20 Oct, 18:59 UTC	49%
20 Oct, 18:24 UTC	49%
20 Oct, 17:17 UTC	49%
20 Oct, 16:41 UTC	50%
20 Oct, 16:13 UTC	52%
20 Oct, 15:58 UTC	53%
20 Oct, 15:23 UTC	53%
20 Oct, 14:47 UTC	53%
20 Oct, 14:10 UTC	53%
20 Oct, 13:53 UTC	52%
20 Oct, 13:13 UTC	53%
20 Oct, 12:53 UTC	53%
20 Oct, 12:25 UTC	53%
20 Oct, 11:26 UTC	52%
20 Oct, 10:49 UTC	51%
20 Oct, 09:54 UTC	50%
20 Oct, 09:25 UTC	50%
20 Oct, 08:44 UTC	50%
20 Oct, 08:23 UTC	50%
20 Oct, 07:56 UTC	51%
20 Oct, 07:29 UTC	50%
20 Oct, 06:58 UTC	50%
20 Oct, 06:13 UTC	50%
20 Oct, 05:47 UTC	52%
19 Oct, 02:22 UTC	44%
18 Oct, 18:36 UTC	45%
18 Oct, 17:52 UTC	44%
18 Oct, 17:03 UTC	45%
18 Oct, 08:14 UTC	42%
18 Oct, 07:35 UTC	42%
18 Oct, 07:21 UTC	43%
18 Oct, 03:57 UTC	47%
18 Oct, 03:23 UTC	46%
17 Oct, 23:22 UTC	45%
17 Oct, 21:39 UTC	45%
17 Oct, 21:25 UTC	44%
17 Oct, 20:39 UTC	44%
17 Oct, 19:51 UTC	44%
17 Oct, 19:11 UTC	44%
17 Oct, 18:57 UTC	44%
17 Oct, 18:29 UTC	44%
17 Oct, 17:35 UTC	43%
17 Oct, 15:29 UTC	43%
17 Oct, 14:46 UTC	43%
17 Oct, 14:27 UTC	43%
17 Oct, 13:34 UTC	43%
17 Oct, 13:16 UTC	44%
17 Oct, 12:48 UTC	43%
17 Oct, 11:53 UTC	44%
17 Oct, 11:06 UTC	44%
17 Oct, 10:47 UTC	43%
17 Oct, 10:12 UTC	42%
17 Oct, 09:59 UTC	42%
17 Oct, 09:06 UTC	43%
17 Oct, 08:59 UTC	43%
17 Oct, 08:14 UTC	42%
17 Oct, 07:54 UTC	43%
17 Oct, 07:27 UTC	44%
17 Oct, 02:36 UTC	48%
17 Oct, 00:31 UTC	47%
16 Oct, 19:20 UTC	48%
16 Oct, 18:45 UTC	48%
16 Oct, 18:24 UTC	47%
16 Oct, 17:29 UTC	47%
16 Oct, 16:53 UTC	46%
16 Oct, 15:24 UTC	47%
16 Oct, 14:59 UTC	46%
16 Oct, 13:45 UTC	47%
16 Oct, 13:03 UTC	46%
16 Oct, 12:26 UTC	46%
16 Oct, 11:09 UTC	47%
16 Oct, 10:55 UTC	47%
16 Oct, 04:49 UTC	46%
16 Oct, 03:02 UTC	46%
15 Oct, 23:35 UTC	46%
15 Oct, 23:22 UTC	47%
15 Oct, 22:49 UTC	46%
15 Oct, 22:29 UTC	46%
15 Oct, 14:27 UTC	45%
15 Oct, 13:59 UTC	46%
15 Oct, 13:24 UTC	45%
15 Oct, 11:13 UTC	45%
15 Oct, 10:38 UTC	46%
15 Oct, 10:13 UTC	46%

Stories

IBM, OpenAI and Silicon Data advance AI business models

IBM reports earnings growth driven by AI demand, while OpenAI expands to Google Cloud and Silicon Data plans token index products with CME.

business 63 sources 29m ago

Polymarket Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? 56% +4

Investors Reassess AI Bets as SoftBank Value Slumps and Meta Boosts Spending

Market sentiment on artificial intelligence is shifting as SoftBank’s value nears a peak halve, MiniMax loses gains, and Meta increases capital expenditure despite broader earnings volatility.

business 31 sources 21m ago

IBM Releases Granite Speech 5.0 2B for Multilingual Transcription and Translation

The Apache 2.0 model ranks second on the Open ASR Leaderboard with a 5.68% average English word error rate.

tech 2 sources 2h ago