Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Implied probability 9%−1
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$93k
Liquidity$26k
Resolves31 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 9% |
| 27 Sept, 15:17 UTC | 9% |
| 27 Sept, 14:03 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Sept, 10:48 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Sept, 21:19 UTC | 10% |
| 22 Sept, 20:50 UTC | 10% |
| 22 Sept, 20:28 UTC | 10% |
| 22 Sept, 18:34 UTC | 10% |
| 22 Sept, 14:05 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Sept, 12:37 UTC | 10% |
| 22 Sept, 11:38 UTC | 11% |
| 21 Sept, 20:34 UTC | 10% |
| 21 Sept, 19:28 UTC | 10% |
| 21 Sept, 18:51 UTC | 10% |
| 21 Sept, 18:05 UTC | 10% |
| 21 Sept, 16:09 UTC | 11% |
| 21 Sept, 15:08 UTC | 11% |
| 21 Sept, 14:42 UTC | 11% |
| 21 Sept, 14:07 UTC | 10% |
| 21 Sept, 13:09 UTC | 11% |
| 21 Sept, 10:10 UTC | 11% |
| 21 Sept, 09:56 UTC | 11% |
| 21 Sept, 08:24 UTC | 11% |
| 21 Sept, 07:14 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Sept, 06:57 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Sept, 01:35 UTC | 13% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The outcome depends on which company owns the AI model ranked highest on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Readers often mistake the resolution time for midnight or assume any other benchmark determines the winner instead of this specific leaderboard.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 9%
- No 91%
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