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Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?

Implied probability 54%+3
24-hour volume$794
Total volume$49k
Liquidity$9k
Resolves1 Dec 2026

Why it moved: +4 points at 19:18 UTC, after Inc.: Why Consumers Don’t Believe in Your Marketing — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
0%50%100%54%7 Oct, 18:06 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now54%
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7 Oct, 18:06 UTC55%

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

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What counts

Google wins if its AI model holds the top spot on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on November 30, 2026. The ranking relies on unrounded scores for tied models, with alphabetical order breaking any remaining ties. Readers often mistake the deadline date for the time or overlook that AutoEval models are excluded from the count.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 54%
  • No 47%

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