Zendaya To Campaign For Best Actress Oscar For Dune 3 Hot: Odds moved 11 points in 24 hours
The actress will seek recognition in the lead category for her role as Chani, marking a shift from previous supporting nominations.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 16% |
| 23 Oct, 23:03 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 30% |
| 23 Oct, 20:49 UTC | 21% |
| 23 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 22% |
| 23 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 14% |
| 22 Oct, 15:43 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 12:53 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 12% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 23 Oct 2026. Variety published first, on 23 October at 19:02 UTC; The A.V. Club followed 2h 26m later. The most recent article, from The A.V. Club, appeared on 23 October at 21:27 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Variety (major outlet), The A.V. Club.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Zendaya — the market puts it at 16%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2027. The outcome is Yes if Zendaya receives a nomination for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the release of her new film or general critical acclaim as sufficient conditions, but only an official Oscar nomination counts.
- Zendaya — the market puts it at 5%, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Zendaya wins the Best Supporting Actress award at the 99th Academy Awards. It resolves to No if she does not win that specific category. Readers often mistake this for a general acting award or confuse the ceremony date with the announcement date.
- Dune: Part Three — the market puts it at 23%, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Dune: Part Three receives a nomination for Achievement in Casting at the 99th Academy Awards. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake this for a general Best Picture nomination or confuse the casting category with acting awards.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Zendaya 16% +11
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Zendaya 5%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Dune: Part Three 23%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Zendaya
- Dune: Part Three
- Denis Villeneuve