Trump's Legal Fund Holds $1.9M Debt in Latest FEC Filing
Save America PAC spent over $5.4 million in the third quarter, leaving its primary legal fund with more than $1.9 million in debt.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 7% |
| 12 Oct, 06:32 UTC | 7% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 7% |
| 5 Oct, 03:52 UTC | 7% |
| 3 Oct, 19:09 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 01:05 UTC | 7% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 16 Oct 2026. The Hill News published first, on 16 October at 16:51 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- At least 500 billion — the market puts it at 7%, closing 31 Mar 2029. The market resolves to Yes if government spending drops by at least $500 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any single quarter through Q4 2028. It resolves to No if that specific threshold is never met during the period. Readers often mistake this for a total cumulative drop rather than a quarterly measurement.
- $40 trillion — the market puts it at 100%, closing 31 Mar 2029. The market resolves to Yes if the U.S. federal debt reaches $40 trillion during any quarter from Q4 2024 through Q4 2028. It resolves to No if that threshold is not met within this specific timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a single fund cancellation for the total national debt, but only the aggregate federal debt level matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
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Markets on this story
- Kalshi At least 500 billion 7%
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- Kalshi $40 trillion 100%
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In this story
- Donald Trump
- Save America PAC
- Federal Election Commission