Trump rally rhetoric draws criticism for division and repetition
Critics argue his decade-long project of division remains abnormal and dangerous.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 13:43 UTC | 2% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Oct, 07:30 UTC | 0% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 7 Oct 2026. The Guardian published first, on 7 October at 17:12 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Event does not qualify — the market puts it at 1%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 23 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if no qualifying event occurs. The linked story about Trump rally rhetoric does not count as a qualifying event because it is not part of the resolution criteria. Readers often mistakenly believe that any significant news related to the topic triggers the market, but only specific events defined in the rules matter.
- Fake News — resolved “Yes” on 8 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump says "Fake News" during the Midterm Rally in San Antonio, Texas. The event must take place at this specific rally originally scheduled for October 7, 2026. Readers often mistake any other instance of him using the phrase for a resolution.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Event does not qualify 1%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Fake News Yes 2h ago
The market favoured Yes at 96% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?