Fake News
The market favoured Yes at 96% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$12k
Total volume$19k
Liquidity$19k
Resolved21 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 7 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 22:05 UTC | 95% |
| 7 Oct, 21:44 UTC | 96% |
| 7 Oct, 21:04 UTC | 95% |
| 7 Oct, 19:35 UTC | 97% |
| 7 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 97% |
| 7 Oct, 17:23 UTC | 96% |
| 6 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 0% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump says "Fake News" during the Midterm Rally in San Antonio, Texas. The event must take place at this specific rally originally scheduled for October 7, 2026. Readers often mistake any other instance of him using the phrase for a resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%