NewsMarkets

Music

Tate McRae's 'Housewife' Debuts at No. 1 on Billboard Global Charts Hot: Odds moved 98 points in 24 hours

The pop star's track tops the global list, beating rivals Taylor Swift and Olivia Rodrigo for the second spot in the US Hot 100 race.

3 publishers · 3 articles · first seen 26 Oct 2026 · updated 57m ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

First reported by Billboard, 55 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first

The odds

How the odds moved · Rank 1 to 2
0%50%100%98%25 Oct, 19:06 UTCnowVariety: Ella Langley Retakes No. 1 on Hot 100 From Taylor Swift; Tate McRae’s ‘Housewife,’ Rodrigo/Roan ‘Expectations’ and Zach Bryan/Lana Del Rey ‘Lies’ All Bow Big · 26 Oct, 19:13 UTCRolling Stone: Tate McRae Beats Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo in Billboard Hot 100 Race for … Number Two · 26 Oct, 18:44 UTCBillboard: Tate McRae’s ‘Housewife’ Debuts at No. 1 on Billboard Global Charts · 26 Oct, 17:49 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now98%
26 Oct, 19:15 UTC98%
25 Oct, 19:06 UTC0%

The story so far

3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 26 Oct 2026. Billboard published first, on 26 October at 17:49 UTC; Rolling Stone followed 55 min later. The most recent article, from Variety, appeared on 26 October at 19:13 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Variety (major outlet), Billboard, Rolling Stone.

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • Rank 1 to 2 — the market puts it at 98%, with $7k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 2 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if Tate McRae's song "Housewife" ranks between No. 1 and No. 2 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart dated November 7, 2026. The outcome is No if it does not meet this ranking criteria. Readers often mistake the release date of the song for the relevant chart date.
  • Tate McRae — the market puts it at 99%, closing 26 Dec 2026. The outcome is Yes if Tate McRae has a top 10 song on the Billboard Hot 100 by the issue dated for the week of December 26, 2026. The outcome is No if she does not meet this requirement by that date. Readers often mistake the release date of her new video for the deadline.
  • Tate McRae — the market puts it at 20%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 21 Dec 2026. The outcome is Yes if Tate McRae has a number-one song on the Billboard Hot 100 by the issue for the week of December 26, 2026. The outcome is No if she does not reach that position within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked story's chart performance as the final result, but only the specific Billboard Hot 100 ranking in the designated issue counts.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Ella Langley Retakes No. 1 on Hot 100 From Taylor Swift; Tate McRae’s ‘Housewife,’ Rodrigo/Roan ‘Expectations’ and Zach Bryan/Lana Del Rey ‘Lies’ All Bow Big Variety ·
  2. Tate McRae Beats Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo in Billboard Hot 100 Race for … Number Two Rolling Stone
  3. Tate McRae’s ‘Housewife’ Debuts at No. 1 on Billboard Global Charts Billboard

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Kalshi Rank 1 to 2 98% +98 $7k 24hends 2 Nov 2026

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Tate McRae 99% $0 24hends 26 Dec 2026

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Tate McRae 20% −46 $1k 24hends 21 Dec 2026

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

Have your say

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

Email me when the odds move

We email a link to confirm first. At most one alert email every six hours; unsubscribe in one click. Privacy

In this story

  • Tate McRae
  • Taylor Swift
  • Olivia Rodrigo
Embed this story

Paste this into any web page to show the live odds, with a link back here.