Tate McRae's 'Housewife' Debuts at No. 1 on Billboard Global Charts Hot: Odds moved 98 points in 24 hours
The pop star's track tops the global list, beating rivals Taylor Swift and Olivia Rodrigo for the second spot in the US Hot 100 race.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by Billboard, 55 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 98% |
| 26 Oct, 19:15 UTC | 98% |
| 25 Oct, 19:06 UTC | 0% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Rank 1 to 2 respond.
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 26 Oct 2026. Billboard published first, on 26 October at 17:49 UTC; Rolling Stone followed 55 min later. The most recent article, from Variety, appeared on 26 October at 19:13 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Variety (major outlet), Billboard, Rolling Stone.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Rank 1 to 2 — the market puts it at 98%, with $7k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 2 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if Tate McRae's song "Housewife" ranks between No. 1 and No. 2 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart dated November 7, 2026. The outcome is No if it does not meet this ranking criteria. Readers often mistake the release date of the song for the relevant chart date.
- Tate McRae — the market puts it at 99%, closing 26 Dec 2026. The outcome is Yes if Tate McRae has a top 10 song on the Billboard Hot 100 by the issue dated for the week of December 26, 2026. The outcome is No if she does not meet this requirement by that date. Readers often mistake the release date of her new video for the deadline.
- Tate McRae — the market puts it at 20%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 21 Dec 2026. The outcome is Yes if Tate McRae has a number-one song on the Billboard Hot 100 by the issue for the week of December 26, 2026. The outcome is No if she does not reach that position within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked story's chart performance as the final result, but only the specific Billboard Hot 100 ranking in the designated issue counts.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Rank 1 to 2 at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- BillboardTate McRae’s ‘Housewife’ Debuts at No. 1 on Billboard Global Charts0%
- Rolling StoneTate McRae Beats Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo in Billboard Hot 100 Race for … Number Two0%
- VarietyElla Langley Retakes No. 1 on Hot 100 From Taylor Swift; Tate McRae’s ‘Housewife,’ Rodrigo/Roan ‘Expectations’ and Zach Bryan/Lana Del Rey ‘Lies’ All Bow Big0%
- Current odds98%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Ella Langley Retakes No. 1 on Hot 100 From Taylor Swift; Tate McRae’s ‘Housewife,’ Rodrigo/Roan ‘Expectations’ and Zach Bryan/Lana Del Rey ‘Lies’ All Bow Big Variety ·
- Tate McRae Beats Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo in Billboard Hot 100 Race for … Number Two Rolling Stone
- Tate McRae’s ‘Housewife’ Debuts at No. 1 on Billboard Global Charts Billboard
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Rank 1 to 2 98% +98
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Tate McRae 99%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Tate McRae 20% −46
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Tate McRae
- Taylor Swift
- Olivia Rodrigo