SpaceX Weight Confirmed at 2.82% in Nasdaq 100 Rebalance
The private company will lock in a sharp increase from its current weighting of about 1.28% when the index’s quarterly rebalance takes effect Monday.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 38% |
| 21 Sept, 14:14 UTC | 38% |
| 21 Sept, 13:17 UTC | 39% |
| 21 Sept, 09:46 UTC | 39% |
| 21 Sept, 06:19 UTC | 39% |
| 21 Sept, 04:50 UTC | 39% |
| 20 Sept, 23:08 UTC | 39% |
| 20 Sept, 22:22 UTC | 39% |
| 20 Sept, 21:07 UTC | 39% |
| 20 Sept, 19:07 UTC | 38% |
| 20 Sept, 18:52 UTC | 38% |
| 20 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 40% |
| 20 Sept, 04:40 UTC | 46% |
| 20 Sept, 04:19 UTC | 45% |
| 20 Sept, 03:24 UTC | 46% |
| 19 Sept, 20:31 UTC | 45% |
| 19 Sept, 19:04 UTC | 45% |
| 19 Sept, 18:58 UTC | 42% |
| 19 Sept, 18:03 UTC | 43% |
| 19 Sept, 09:37 UTC | 42% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 41% |
| 17 Sept, 13:14 UTC | 46% |
| 17 Sept, 07:47 UTC | 46% |
| 17 Sept, 07:22 UTC | 46% |
| 15 Sept, 11:47 UTC | 46% |
| 15 Sept, 11:04 UTC | 47% |
| 15 Sept, 10:24 UTC | 47% |
| 14 Sept, 22:16 UTC | 47% |
| 14 Sept, 16:26 UTC | 47% |
| 14 Sept, 15:42 UTC | 47% |
| 14 Sept, 12:36 UTC | 49% |
| 14 Sept, 12:03 UTC | 50% |
| 14 Sept, 11:52 UTC | 50% |
| 14 Sept, 11:20 UTC | 51% |
| 14 Sept, 10:53 UTC | 51% |
| 14 Sept, 09:25 UTC | 52% |
| 14 Sept, 08:36 UTC | 52% |
| 14 Sept, 08:28 UTC | 53% |
| 14 Sept, 07:50 UTC | 52% |
| 14 Sept, 07:17 UTC | 52% |
| 14 Sept, 06:55 UTC | 52% |
| 14 Sept, 02:37 UTC | 54% |
| 14 Sept, 01:56 UTC | 52% |
| 14 Sept, 00:07 UTC | 52% |
| 13 Sept, 22:46 UTC | 53% |
| 13 Sept, 22:14 UTC | 52% |
| 13 Sept, 21:48 UTC | 53% |
| 13 Sept, 20:33 UTC | 52% |
| 13 Sept, 18:04 UTC | 51% |
| 13 Sept, 17:18 UTC | 52% |
| 13 Sept, 15:07 UTC | 51% |
| 13 Sept, 14:38 UTC | 50% |
| 13 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 48% |
| 13 Sept, 13:37 UTC | 54% |
| 13 Sept, 12:52 UTC | 53% |
| 13 Sept, 12:21 UTC | 53% |
| 13 Sept, 11:59 UTC | 47% |
| 13 Sept, 11:12 UTC | 47% |
| 13 Sept, 10:57 UTC | 47% |
| 13 Sept, 09:51 UTC | 46% |
| 13 Sept, 08:59 UTC | 47% |
| 13 Sept, 05:01 UTC | 45% |
| 13 Sept, 03:12 UTC | 42% |
| 13 Sept, 02:14 UTC | 42% |
| 13 Sept, 01:46 UTC | 43% |
| 12 Sept, 23:42 UTC | 42% |
| 12 Sept, 19:59 UTC | 42% |
| 12 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 41% |
| 11 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 42% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 19 Sept 2026. Bloomberg Markets published first, on 19 September at 14:17 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? — the market puts it at 38%, with $7k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if SpaceX completes an IPO in 2026 and its market capitalization exceeds that of any other company with a 2026 IPO on its first trading day. The No outcome applies if another company achieves the highest market cap, or if SpaceX does not complete an IPO within the year.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
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Related prediction markets
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- Polymarket Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? 38% −8
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In this story
- Nasdaq 100
- SpaceX