SpaceX Declines Military Launches as Canada Pursues Independent Orbit Capability
SpaceX has declined military launch contracts while Canada asserts its ability to reach orbit on its own terms.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 19% |
| 23 Oct, 16:43 UTC | 19% |
| 21 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 20% |
| 21 Oct, 12:14 UTC | 19% |
| 21 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 20% |
| 20 Oct, 23:49 UTC | 19% |
| 20 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 20% |
| 20 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 19% |
| 20 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 20% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 19% |
| 19 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 19% |
| 17 Oct, 16:02 UTC | 18% |
| 17 Oct, 14:11 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 18% |
| 16 Oct, 14:52 UTC | 20% |
| 16 Oct, 13:03 UTC | 18% |
| 15 Oct, 03:03 UTC | 20% |
| 14 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 22% |
| 14 Oct, 15:46 UTC | 21% |
| 14 Oct, 14:38 UTC | 18% |
| 14 Oct, 13:05 UTC | 21% |
| 14 Oct, 02:08 UTC | 20% |
| 12 Oct, 17:30 UTC | 18% |
| 12 Oct, 15:40 UTC | 21% |
| 12 Oct, 04:10 UTC | 20% |
| 12 Oct, 03:31 UTC | 17% |
| 12 Oct, 03:25 UTC | 18% |
| 11 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 21% |
| 10 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 18% |
| 10 Oct, 19:11 UTC | 17% |
| 10 Oct, 13:21 UTC | 18% |
| 10 Oct, 03:13 UTC | 18% |
| 9 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 20% |
| 8 Oct, 02:15 UTC | 21% |
| 7 Oct, 23:11 UTC | 18% |
| 7 Oct, 16:08 UTC | 23% |
| 6 Oct, 08:35 UTC | 27% |
| 5 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 27% |
| 5 Oct, 14:09 UTC | 24% |
| 5 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 25% |
| 5 Oct, 06:55 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 14% |
| 4 Oct, 14:52 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Oct, 11:21 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 07:51 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Oct, 06:19 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 15% |
| 2 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 16% |
| 2 Oct, 11:15 UTC | 15% |
| 2 Oct, 06:17 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 15% |
| 1 Oct, 22:33 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 15% |
| 1 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 21% |
| 29 Sept, 08:13 UTC | 26% |
| 29 Sept, 06:22 UTC | 25% |
| 28 Sept, 08:46 UTC | 22% |
| 28 Sept, 05:28 UTC | 26% |
| 28 Sept, 04:15 UTC | 22% |
| 27 Sept, 10:37 UTC | 27% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 26% |
| 26 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 22% |
| 25 Sept, 22:02 UTC | 27% |
| 25 Sept, 01:06 UTC | 22% |
| 24 Sept, 12:09 UTC | 23% |
| 23 Sept, 18:25 UTC | 26% |
| 22 Sept, 18:06 UTC | 21% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 23 Oct 2026. Ars Technica published first, on 23 October at 11:00 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Before 2030 — the market puts it at 19%, with $25 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2030. The market resolves to Yes if SpaceX successfully lands any object on Mars before January 1, 2030. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a launch date as the resolution condition, but only an actual landing counts.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Before 2030 19%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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